Where ICM is lacking?

[pineapple888]

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The whole point of ICM is that it calculates the effect of a short term play on your long term profit. Thus, following ICM cannot be short sighted.

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ICM models equity in tournaments according to current chip stacks. While it has shown to be close in most situations, ICM does not perfectly model your equity.

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Agreed, ignoring the real-world corrections I addressed in another post for the moment, ICM undervalues big stacks slightly (steal equity) and overvalues micro-stacks slightly (loss of fold equity).

[IFoldPktOnes]

Interesting discussion, thanks for clarifying a few things for me pineapple.

One concept I have trouble applying is when to take slight -EV pushes, you alluded to this above:
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Part of the skill of STTs is understanding how important each of those five factors become in various situations, to set your minimum edge correctly. This min edge can range from quite large to potentially slightly negative (on very tough tables where the sizable blinds are about to hit you).


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ICM undervalues big stacks slightly (steal equity) and overvalues micro-stacks slightly (loss of fold equity).

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So we should make slightly negative EV pushes to prevent losing our fold equity when large blinds are about to cripple our stack? An example of when this is correct would really help me out. Sometimes I find myself doing this intuitively and later look back at my HH and wonder if it was the right play.


Btw ChipLeader look closely at how you worded your example. If you meant to say the 1st toss is a "fair" bet and you have $2 after winning, then the whole example is pointless since a fair bet doesn't change expectation it only increases variance (this might be what you are getting at im not sure).

[pineapple888]

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Interesting discussion, thanks for clarifying a few things for me pineapple.

One concept I have trouble applying is when to take slight -EV pushes, you alluded to this above:
[ QUOTE ]

Part of the skill of STTs is understanding how important each of those five factors become in various situations, to set your minimum edge correctly. This min edge can range from quite large to potentially slightly negative (on very tough tables where the sizable blinds are about to hit you).


[/ QUOTE ]
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ICM undervalues big stacks slightly (steal equity) and overvalues micro-stacks slightly (loss of fold equity).

[/ QUOTE ]
So we should make slightly negative EV pushes to prevent losing our fold equity when large blinds are about to cripple our stack? An example of when this is correct would really help me out. Sometimes I find myself doing this intuitively and later look back at my HH and wonder if it was the right play.


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And everyone else at the table is clueful so they aren't about to bust each other out. It really doesn't come up all that often. I could construct an example I suppose but don't have one at my fingertips.