last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push

[El Stuntman]

Hi all,

would appreciate opinions on the below MTT situation:

20k tournie guaranteed on iPoker last night

I am down to last 4

payouts as follows:

1st $6,345
2nd $4,230
3rd $2,115
4th $1,645

I have ~80k and am on the BB
SB has similar

other two have largeish stacks (250k and and 170k).

blinds are 5k/10k (10 mins left in the level) and it has degenerated into a total push-fest

two big stacks fold and SB shoves. I look down at 22.

Do I call??? I am getting varying opinions.

[jman3232]

no way, theres no point. Unless the guy has a 2 in his hand you are 50/50 at best. Possibily dominated with an overpair. you might seem like your getting beaten around, but you can wait for a better time.

[El Stuntman]

point taken...but will there be a better time with only 7BBs left and 4-handed?

if I put his range as any ace, any king, possibly any queen and any suited connectors plus maybe a 10% chance of an overpair, is the call not +EV based on the 10k already in there?

[JammyDodga]

this might be very marginally +EV on this hand, but you've got to consider oppurtunity cost. If you fold you are going to have better oppurtunities to get you stack all in which have much greater +EV. In fact I'd rather be first in with ATC than call this here.

[jman3232]

The risk of eliminating yourself makes it -EV, IMO.

I think its better to push with any hand than call with 22. 70k in this scenario is not a very small amount.

[registrar]

Good question. I don't know. I'd probably fold. I generally don't think that people call enough in these situations and overrate FE (I'd rather be the first in etc.) but I'd still probably fold here.

[jman3232]

also, by folding there is a chance one of the others gets out before you go all in again, which alone is $500

[El Stuntman]

[ QUOTE ]
also, by folding there is a chance one of the others gets out before you go all in again, which alone is $500

[/ QUOTE ]

the extra $500 is pretty irrelevant tbh

I'd like to get some workings on whether this is +EV and CEV based on the range I've assigned villain. My gut said 50/50 with 10k invested i.e. calling 70 to win 90 which made it a call

I'm primarily a cash player (usually only play live tournies) so would be interested to see if anyone could help me out on the maths

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also, by folding there is a chance one of the others gets out before you go all in again, which alone is $500

[/ QUOTE ]

the extra $500 is pretty irrelevant tbh...

I'm primarily a cash player ....

[/ QUOTE ]

At this stage in the tourney you MUST be thinking about payouts, +EV in chips can very easily be -EV in dollers.

[El Stuntman]

[ QUOTE ]
At this stage in the tourney you MUST be thinking about payouts, +EV in chips can very easily be -EV in dollers.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, sorry I didn't want to give the impression I was some kind of eccentric millionaire who didn't care about money!

of course I cared about the money, my thinking was:

1. I need a double up, pronto
2. If I call and win, SB is eliminated. I will have 160k and a very good shot at taking the whole thing down.
3. We are so shallow that I genuinely may not find a better spot before my stack is decimated further
4. I believe I am in a 50/50 spot and am thus priced in favourably by my BB.

it's a very interesting spot - razor thin imo. I posted it on my usual poker forum and the responses were divided. The feedback here is also interesting in that no-one has said call yet.

I'm happy to be called a donkey for calling!