Theoretical question about heads up

[cheburashka]

Maybe this is a beginner's question, so forgive me if I've mis-posted, but I find that you guys generally give great advice, so I'm posting here.

Harrington sez SB should will always have the correct pot odds to call, because you are getting at least 3:1 (depending on antes), and even 32os is better than a 3:1 dog against the average hand.

But something strikes me about fishy about that.

If you are calling all-in, then the pot and hand odds obviously apply. But in most instances, you are not calling all-in, so if you don't pair something on the flop then you are extremely vulnerable to betting. If BB is any kind of aggro, then there is a 90% chance he bets the flop, and then you have to fold without seeing the turn or river.

So it seems to me that for at least the worst trash (i.e. hands that are very likely to meet two or three overcards on the flop), the relevant odds are not your hand vs. the average hand, but the odds against pairing the flop.

I've done a search and can't find a good answer to this. Can you all help me out?

[JackOfSpeed]

BB will act first after the flop. If any player bet out 90% of the time when first to act after the flop, he/she would be truly awful and exploitable, unless his or her opponent never caught on and called or raised without a pair.

I know that doesn't really answer your question. My response would be, if you feel you are going to get outplayed postflop (you'd have to be pretty bad for this to happen consistently when you're in position), then a hand like 32o is probably a fold. But the simple reason that the BB is going to bet out a lot isn't enough to keep me from completing here.

[MJBuddy]

He uses this to emphasize how little you should be folding pre-flop, not how strong 23o is.

The point is that folding almost any hand is wrong, and if you see someone folding repeatedly, they're throwing away money (and haven't read HoH so you should be able to wreck them).

[cferejohn]

Also, this is more true if your opponent will not raise after you complete without a big hand. If he's raising every time you complete, you want to complete with less (and complete-reraise with any moderately strong hand). But if he's checking behind 75% of the time after you complete, completing with 23o is at least not terrible.

[JackOfSpeed]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, this is more true if your opponent will not raise after you complete without a big hand. If he's raising every time you complete, you want to complete with less (and complete-reraise with any moderately strong hand). But if he's checking behind 75% of the time after you complete, completing with 23o is at least not terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point.

[cheburashka]

Thanks, all! Very good points.