WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer

[curtains]

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Quick question. The OP was a little unclear about this.

Did he bet 2200 or 3100? It said he reached for 2200 more, and made that his action.


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3100 total

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Scratch the four bet then.

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Oh I calculated it as 2200 for some reason, so I guess pot is even bigger than I thought.

[NoahSD]

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Quick question. The OP was a little unclear about this.

Did he bet 2200 or 3100? It said he reached for 2200 more, and made that his action.


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3100 total

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Scratch the four bet then.

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Oh I calculated it as 2200 for some reason, so I guess pot is even bigger than I thought.

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Yeah.. everything I did was thinking it was 2200.

[8Adam8]

I really think people are underestimating how strong our line looks if we call his 3bet in position and then shove over a standard c-bet.

HL 3bets to 3100, we call.
6500 in the pot, 15000 effective stacks.
HL cbets 3600-4400, we shove for 15000 total.

We take this line with QQ+ every single time. Also, its incredibly hard for Howard to just stack off without a very very strong hand when we shove over his cbet.

Lets assume he is 3betting even slightly wide and cbetting with a standard, moderately high frequency:

Calling his 3bet and shoving over his cbet (depending on flop texture) is insanely +EV and I can't imagine how its not the best line.

[MUD]

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i think reraising to 6500 planning on folding to a shove isnt getting enough love here.

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What if I put him on one of 2 ranges: Any 2 cards or TT+,AQs+. (Its interesting to note that he only has to be making a move with a random hand 5% of the time for his range to be Half ATC/Half TT+, AQs+)

What do you guys think the right action is then?

Would reraise to 6000 get any more love or should we still just shove

[MUD]

Alright I'm not exactly sure on the terminology.

Its 2200 to me

3100 is the total amount with the blinds he has put in.

[betgo]

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I really think people are underestimating how strong our line looks if we call his 3bet in position and then shove over a standard c-bet.

HL 3bets to 3100, we call.
6500 in the pot, 15000 effective stacks.
HL cbets 3600-4400, we shove for 15000 total.

We take this line with QQ+ every single time. Also, its incredibly hard for Howard to just stack off without a very very strong hand when we shove over his cbet.

Lets assume he is 3betting even slightly wide and cbetting with a standard, moderately high frequency:

Calling his 3bet and shoving over his cbet (depending on flop texture) is insanely +EV and I can't imagine how its not the best line.

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Why would HL make a standard cbet with twice the pot? Wouldn't it make more sense to push, pot it or check (with the intention of either checkraising or check/folding).

I think pushing is much better versus a very strong tournament player. Don't give him a chance to outplay you.

Folding is awful. If we push, and HL folds, we have almost twice his chips. If we fold, he has the chip lead.

[TheNewf]

I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

[betgo]

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I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

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If HL has a big hand, of course he reraises like this. Do you think he wouldn't make this play without a big hand? Would he flat rather than reraise with anything but JJ+, AK?

Without a read, I like the push, because the result is so good for us if we take the pot or bust HL. Plus you really don't want HL continually calling or reraising you preflop.

I don't like the fact that HL was not looking at OP. That might imply HL is not concerned with OP's hand.

[0evg0]

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I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

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There's two sides people seem hell bent on taking:

-Relying solely on ranges+odds to come to a conclusion that shoving is almost always profitable

or

-Deciding that folding is a must based on previous hands, reads, history, etc.

I think that the answer, not surprisingly, is somewhere in the middle. That's not to say both polar sides don't have their arguments for being the best, or that neither are profitable, but after thinking about it more I think calling with the intention to shove most flops is going to work out best for us in the long run because it doesn't handcuff us, but at the same time it doesn't lead us to closing the door on what may be a very profitable spot. Calling will give us more information to work with to decide which of the two camps of actions (apply aggression because there is a lot of potential for profitability or fold because we are crushed) is closer to the truth.

[NoahSD]

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I've thought about this more and talked to Steve about it. We agree that doing anything but folding here is terrible. He has a big hand and he thinks you're some random overaggro kid who's just going to give him all your chips. And oh look, you are.

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So you think he's not 3-betting AJo or that he's calling a shove with AQo?