Barry Greenstein Bet Agaisnt Eli Elezra Good or bad Odds?

[LISceneSucks]

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Also, its funny that I wouldn't even wager 10:1 on say, Ivey/DN winning bracelts in a single year, but if someone would mention a TOP mtt player...someone that could/would play alot of WSOP events and not just NLHE, I would have to think twice about taking that action, but probably still would.

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how could you not take 10:1 on ivey or negreanu??? you really think theyll go 10 years without winning a bracelet??? ivey is probably 3:1 and DN is probably 4:1

you gotta take into account them playing every game and every tourney they can

with that said...eli does not have same tourney results and may be close to 10:1...but i think if he played huge number of events he would get it done...the deal imo is unethical unless previously discussed between him and barry

[TStoneMBD]

i played with eli quite a bit in this event and hes no stud8 expert.

when we got down to 2 tables this hand took place:

a player opened in ep with a 7, eli called with a queen with a few low cards behind him including an ace. i had split aces and smoothcalled. on 4th i caught an 8, the 7 caught an ace and eli bricked. we all checked. on 5th both me and the A7 caught a king. i bet and the AK7 raised. eli tanked forever and when he finally folded he showed his hand and proudly remarked about the great laydown he just made. of course we both had split aces and even i knew eli's split queens couldnt beat the opponent who raised and hed have to have the case ace in the deck to be ahead since i have the other two.

if you know anything about stud8 you know that eli looks like a huge fish in this hand.

i wouldnt classify him as a huge fish though. hes very aggressive and has good poker sense which is common for people who have super high stakes experience as they learn alot of excellent skills from great players. he was definitely +ev in this tournament, but hes certainly not some great player.

10:1 seems like a very good bet for greenstein, and you could argue that greenstein is the favorite just by looking at the two parties that made the bet. whos more likely to be the favorite in a prop bet between these 2 guys? besides, eli is unlikely to play many events, and even if he played 30 hed need a >50% ROI to be +EV in this bet, which may be doable for him but i doubt hes going to play that many events, especially since tournaments like the 50k horse are 5 day events.

[sc000t]

LIS,

I was talking about 10:1 for a SINGLE YEAR at WSOP for ivey/dn. BUT TBH, I think 5 years for Ivey OR DN to win a a WSOP event would still maaaaaaaaaaaaybe be a bad bet. I know the guys are good. And I know they play alot of events, and easier ones to win at that. Its much easier to win a stud8/ horse mtt when its limit and there isn't a billion people playing. But to be the number one player out of these fields is still a long shot regardless of skill.

Basically, all things equal in the 5 years, thats giving 2:1 on any single year at one of them pulling in a bracelet. I would gladly bet $1, $10, $100, $1,000 or $10,000 on any given person winning a brecelet in a single year @ 2:1.


EDIT: Also, TS makes a good point. Something that I didnt know. About Eli NOT playing many events, I was thinking he would play alot, just for the reason that he likes to play poker, has yet to win a wsop and has enough time and money on his hand to play all these events. Plus, the 50k horse event taking a so many days to finish (assuming he is in it past the first or second day) would kill his chances. ON TOP OF ALL THIS THO, 2:1 is a great deal for barry....let alot 10:1. AND barry has got to have better reasoning when it comes to making +EV prop bets on this sort of thing. amIright?

[pig4bill]

Eli has said in interviews that he plays tournaments completely differently than cash games. He plays much looser in cash games because he can re-load if he busts.

[TheGrasshopper]

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Eli has said in interviews that he plays tournaments completely differently than cash games. He plays much looser in cash games because he can re-load if he busts.

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Given the hand that TS explained and watching him on HSP, I doubt he is capable of changing his game from what it is.

We all know those people who say play the player but don't know the first thing about applying it to their game.

[arcdog]

sc000t, you're talking about a bad bet there. If I bet on Ivey and take the 10:1 odds each and every year, all he has to do is win a single bracelet every ten years for me to make money. So, you see how taking the other side of that is a bad gamble?

Sure, you'd likely win the bet in a given year, but you are laying waaaaaay too much. Its not even close. I'd say about 2.5 to 1 is as far as you should be willing to go.

[menacing_1]

I remember last year David Grey had a bet at 4:1 with Erik Seidel that John Juanda wouldn't win a bracelet in any event in 2006. The bet was for $100,000. Juanda didn't win, and Grey collected $100k.

[vhawk01]

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LIS,

I was talking about 10:1 for a SINGLE YEAR at WSOP for ivey/dn. BUT TBH, I think 5 years for Ivey OR DN to win a a WSOP event would still maaaaaaaaaaaaybe be a bad bet. I know the guys are good. And I know they play alot of events, and easier ones to win at that. Its much easier to win a stud8/ horse mtt when its limit and there isn't a billion people playing. But to be the number one player out of these fields is still a long shot regardless of skill.

Basically, all things equal in the 5 years, thats giving 2:1 on any single year at one of them pulling in a bracelet. I would gladly bet $1, $10, $100, $1,000 or $10,000 on any given person winning a brecelet in a single year @ 2:1.


EDIT: Also, TS makes a good point. Something that I didnt know. About Eli NOT playing many events, I was thinking he would play alot, just for the reason that he likes to play poker, has yet to win a wsop and has enough time and money on his hand to play all these events. Plus, the 50k horse event taking a so many days to finish (assuming he is in it past the first or second day) would kill his chances. ON TOP OF ALL THIS THO, 2:1 is a great deal for barry....let alot 10:1. AND barry has got to have better reasoning when it comes to making +EV prop bets on this sort of thing. amIright?

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LOL you suck at gambling. 10:1 on him winning a bracelet this year is roughly analogous to "do you think he will win a bracelet in the next 10 years?" Its not exactly the same, but your next statement about how "heck he might not even win one in the next five years".....hahahahaha.

[Rekwob]

whats to stop barry giving scotty financial incentive to win when they get heads up as well? they're not idiots, this will have come up and be pretty much a non issue

[Tofu_boy]

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whats to stop barry giving scotty financial incentive to win when they get heads up as well? they're not idiots, this will have come up and be pretty much a non issue

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What Barry have to Offer Scotty here? The most he can get is 25k. Beside deal to lose the game so much easier than deal to win it.