KK call fold or push?

[cpk]

My guts tell me to shove, but let's think about it critically.

The pot is 7300. You have 7975 left. The rule of thumb is that a player is full of [censored] [/i]at least[/i] 10% of the time. So 10% of the time your opponent will fold and you'll win 7300.

Of the remaining 90%, assume your opponent's range is QQ+. 6/13 of the time your opponent will have QQ. 81.2% of the time you will win 15275. 18.8% of the time you will lose 7975. 1/13 of the time your opponent will have KK, which is a push and you will win 3650. 6/13 of the time your opponent will have AA. 81.3% of the time you will lose 7975, 18.7% of the time you will win 15275.*

I've probably screwed up the math, but I get an EV of 4005 for a shove if this assumption is correct. If he folds QQ half the time, it drops to 3257. If he always folds QQ, then it drops to 2508. In any case, all you need is for him to make this 3-bet with QQ+, and you have a clear +EV call. If his range for the move is only KK+/10% other, though, then you are in deep doo-doo, for an EV of -1598. Boost it to 20% other, and you get -610. If it is 30% other, then it's +379.

The point of this exercise is to show that you need serious evidence to fold KK preflop. I think your opponent is pretty aggressive and may have a wider range for this move than KK+. He only needs about a 30% deviation from KK+ for a shove to be profitable. The wider the deviation, the more profit for you.

*I did some simplification here. Actually sometimes you'll win or lose vs. KK, and sometimes you'll tie against QQ or AA. But these eventualities are very minor and shouldn't change the calculations much.

Edit: Fixed arithmetic errors.