NL 100 AKs

[bottomset]

I think the turn is a fold

river fold>call>>>>push

[Roger Mainfield]

getting 3-1?? I think we see AQ and AK here very often, and sometimes an aggro JJ-KK.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
getting 3-1?? I think we see AQ and AK here very often, and sometimes an aggro JJ-KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think fold and call are close on the river

I think pushing is really bad

[RipperTEQ]

3 bet 72off and show, that will get you some action. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like the river call over push.

Think about it this way...you can put in $30 to win $91 or you put in $50 to win $111. How often would he need to bet a worse hand to make pushing > calling?

x($111) + (1-x)(-$50) > x($91) + (1-x)(-$30)
111x + 50x - 50 > 91x + 30x - 30
161x - 50 > 121x - 30
40x > 20
x > .50

If 50% of the time you are ahead, then you get the following EVs for each:

EVcall = .50($91) + .50(-$30) = $45.50 - $15 = +$30.50
EVpush = .50($111) + .50(-$50) = $55.50 - $25 = +$30.50

So without a clear read as an opponent being aggressive, this is a call not a push because not many opponents will bet marginal hands on the river, except in the low limits. Even then, you will lose money in the long run without a read.

[Roger Mainfield]

So he needs to call at least 50% of the time on the river with a worse hand for a push to be correct? (self-obvious)

Anyway back to the turn, you really think this is a fold? Someone bets 1/2 pot into you on 2 streets and you fold TPTK?(specially since we underepped our hand) I really think we see worse aces, or AK here a lot of the time.

Here is my thinking on possible hands by the river:
22-55, these hands all have either a straight or a set. They are quite possible but pf makes them iffy.

99-KK, very opponent dependant, aggro opponent might try betting them both streets, but would usually check the river.

AJ-AK, Very possible, hands trying to get value the whole way with value bets on all streets.

Note: I didn't even include air here, as I would have noticed if Villian had done crazy stuff prior to this (I hope)
This was my thinking in general, I just felt that top pair type hands were the most likely hands(60-70%). And if we narrow it down to the river, The river will be bet by sets and straights all the time, and by AJ-AK most of the time. I don't really do hand distribution math, but basically

IF# of combination of 22-66) < (river bet frequency)(# of combination of (AK(most likely)+AQ(fairly likely)+AJ(rarely))

So if the above statement is true I shove, if its false I call(or fold if it is really small (less than 30:81).
Note: I assume that all hands that bet call a shove (20 into 111)

I haven't plugged numbers in, and I would like to say that after looking at hundreds of posts on 2p2 i've never done this much math/logic.

This post came off pretty snoty reading it over, but I'm no good with grammar. I would appreciate some thoughts on this, I don't usually go into this much detail.

[Chuck D]

I don't get why you think preflop makes the 22-55 iffy? the orig raise isn't uncommon really, and calling the RR is totally expected(maybe a little thin but don't expect a fold)

you mistyped the flop action, he bet you called no checking was involved, or he checked and you made a weak bet that sucks too which he called

I don't think to many live players will go bet bet into a PFR-reraiser with weaker Ax all that often

[Roger Mainfield]

woops ya called a 7$ bet on the flop. It wasn't live, site with no HH's. Iffy cause the re-raise was 6.6% of his stack, which makes it prettty thin, I think most people fold this mainly because they are OOP.