Wagering on the Presidential Election

[Shrug]

Has anyone put some $$ up yet?
I was checking the markets on WSEX and felt so out of the loop when I saw that at the moment, MITT ROMNEY is tied as favorite with RUDY G....and I have no idea who he is!!

A democratic winner is the fav, but is there enough value to purchase at present price? I just see a huge backlash against Republicans because of Iraq...but I have to admit that politics is not one of my strong points.

[pete fabrizio]

Mitt is a co-favorite because Guiliani is pro-choice and because McCain once compared Pat Robertson to Louis Farrakan. Fred Thompson will be a big favorite if he decides to run, since he's got a lot of personality and he's pro-life for real. If there's good value in the Republican field, I think it's Chuck Hagel at .8-1. He's articulate, telegenic, and very conservative on social issues. Even before Bush was elected, he was considered a potential successor, even though he was a bit of a "Maverick." The only reason he's priced so low is because a lot of republicans are mad at him for being so sharply critical of Bush over Iraq. But if the republicans get their act together, they may realize that his opposition to this super-unpopular war could be a huge asset.

[bigalt]

you can get a decent discussion going in the sports betting forum on these sorts of topics

[mjkidd]

I'm pretty sure there's value in shorting Romney. Dude is pretty and he talks good, but he's Mormon. That dog just won't hunt.

[NickMPK]

If you don't know who Mitt Romney is, how can you possibly have enough knowledge of American politics to beat the market?

[NickMPK]

I've never bet on these sort of markets, so maybe I don't quite understand how it works, but I see value in shorting Al Gore at 20 (I think there definitely is less than a 50% chance he even runs), and maybe buying Edwards at 9 (he is winning in Iowa, and Obama seems to have been slowed).

Chuck Hagel is not a good bet for GOP nominee because if he gets in the race, he will probably run as an Independent.

I think the chance of a Dem nominee winning is right around 60%, so I don't see any profitable buys there.

[TheVegan]

[ QUOTE ]

If you don't know who Mitt Romney is, how can you possibly have enough knowledge of American politics to beat the market?

[/ QUOTE ]

She didn't say she is expecting to beat the market. She was just starting a discussion about the betting opportunities. And actually if she learns enough in this forum maybe she could beat the market. Personally I think the dem's are a lock. The guy I wish would win is Dennis Kucinich. Of course that is the longshot of all time. I like this topic Shrug. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[revots33]

I like Romney/Giuliani on the republican side. Romney could get a boost if he wins the early primaries, which he's leading in the polls. I don't think Mormonism is as big a hurdle as people think. Sure it's a goofy religion, but aren't they all? Giuliani is strong on the fighting terrorism platform, which I think will be a deciding factor for many voters.

[suzy89222]

The guy I wish would win is Dennis Kucinich. Of course that is the longshot of all time. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

agree but sadly, it just aint gonna happen.

[LKJ]

The only money worth wagering on Kucinich would be an over/under on when he drops out.

Giuliani has decent value if you think he can survive the GOP primary. He would fare well as a general election nominee I think, I just think his social liberalism is going to do him in among Republican voters come February.