The Well: King Yao

[King Yao]

"do you worry at all about not being able to get as much action after you publish a book? "

I thought about that before writing the book. I rarely have to give up an ID in Vegas, so that's not an issue. In offshore books, I'm winding down my action to a fraction of what it used to be. So in the end, those issues didn't matter as much to me as they would have just a year ago. If nothing had changed from a year ago, I probably wouldn't have written the book.

[bot1478]

Is this well still open? let me shout down and see.

I am intriggued by ML versus points. as I shop for lines,(basketball playoffs in particular) I often much more variation in th eML even when the Points line is pretty much stable. It seems there must be a +EV opportunity here. Is there a correlation between ML and points line available? And whats your thoughts on this as a +EV opportunity?

[King Yao]

"I am intriggued by ML versus points. as I shop for lines,(basketball playoffs in particular) I often much more variation in th eML even when the Points line is pretty much stable. It seems there must be a +EV opportunity here. Is there a correlation between ML and points line available? And whats your thoughts on this as a +EV opportunity? "

There should be a direct relationship between the pointspread and the money line. It may fluctuate based on the total though. For example, a high total game may have a relatively lower money line given the same pointspread as a low total game.

There are positive EV opportunities in ML vs pointspread. A prominent example is during the Super Bowl. The money line and the pointspread often doesn't line up correctly. The people betting on the underdog in the SB are more likely to bet on the moneyline than the people betting on the favorite. So the relationship gets skewed. During regular season games, it is less so, but I imagine there are opportunities here and there.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
There are positive EV opportunities in ML vs pointspread. A prominent example is during the Super Bowl. The money line and the pointspread often doesn't line up correctly. The people betting on the underdog in the SB are more likely to bet on the moneyline than the people betting on the favorite. So the relationship gets skewed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the BCS game with Texas v Usc was a great example of this, I think the ML was dropping from +220 to +160 [wide range] at various books while the line was almost always 7.5, but each day and then hour that went by the final day, the ML kept dropping and dropping.

USC ML bettors who also took UT+7.5 almost made a killing, but Vince Young stepped in.

[King Yao]

That is a great example. Interestingly to me, the same thing did not occur in this year's BCS game between Ohio State and Florida. That one seemed to be fairly in-line.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
That is a great example. Interestingly to me, the same thing did not occur in this year's BCS game between Ohio State and Florida. That one seemed to be fairly in-line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the UT money line was very popular due to Vince and having a much higher ranked D and the #1 ranked Offense that year in Texas. Fla was not so demonstrably better than Ohio, even though I thought they were the easy pick.

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] the retail bettor who somehow believed USC was teh bestest team of alltime, even with Pete Carroll coaching. Heh.
[the ML dropped from 260 to 200, not 220 to 160 on Game Day, but same type of move, obviously.]

[lastsamurai]

King yao..

Whats your opinion on trends?