Antigua WTO Press Release-US action contrary to purpose of GATS

[TheEngineer]

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I think the problem with bringing any element of the WTO issue into the argument is that as long as people like Jay don't get the dream scenario they need, there will always be demands for IP resolutions etc. This in turn forces the situation into an all or nothing scenario, which I outlined above as being bad.

I think we are best off following your lead, pushing for US legislation. As I stated in an earlier thread, I have been right behind you on your efforts, and I think that is part of the way forward...

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Thanks. I'm CERTAINLY not suggesting we abandon support for IGREA in favor of hoping somehow the U.S. will cave to the WTO. After all, there's no history of the U.S. bending to the will of any international body, and there's little reason to imagine this will be the first. However, we can use this as added ammo in our arsenal. I have in some of my pro-IGREA letters.

My original question was really to Jay. It wasn't rhetorical. I'm really curious to know how he sees this progressing, so we can assist if possible.

[counthomer]

I'm still waiting for Jay to explain how he benefits from the situation.

Given that IP sanctions will never practically be used, I can't see how he believes that the real worst case scenario for the US (free access for all companies with no domestic providers of note) is a credible outcome..

[JPFisher55]

It seems to me that if Jay wins, us online poker players win. I know that the opposite is not necessarily true. However, I think that Jay's and Antiqua's efforts help our cause. Not just in Congress and politics, but potentially in court.

[Jay Cohen]

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I'm still waiting for Jay to explain how he benefits from the situation.

Given that IP sanctions will never practically be used, I can't see how he believes that the real worst case scenario for the US (free access for all companies with no domestic providers of note) is a credible outcome..

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That's your opinion. I think IP sanctions will be used if push comes to shove. IP interests will be ringing their Congressmen and women off the hook. I doubt the US will ever ban all remote gaming, the horse lobby alone is too strong.

Engineer, I don't want to spell out in a public forum how I think things can get done, but I do think they can.

TT, we agree. Mark nailed it on the head. Have any of you seen the latest press release from the NTRA? It basically brags about how they think their industry is now protected from foreign competition.

[TheEngineer]

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I doubt the US will ever ban all remote gaming, the horse lobby alone is too strong.

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Do you have data indicating that the horse lobby is stronger than the anti-gambling crowd plus the NFL, such that Kyl and Co. would vote to open up the U.S. to unregulated, wide-open Internet gambling?

I hope you're right.

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Engineer, I don't want to spell out in a public forum how I think things can get done, but I do think they can.

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Fair enough. PM me if you can think of anything we can help with. Good luck.

[Legislurker]

I think we are overinflating the mainstream importance of this. Frist pushed this in in the dark. Frankly, the issue can best be summed up by Kyl's spokeman's comment on us, "they just don't vote." We haven't made a front page story despite what could be the most tumultuous WTO case ever in terms of sanctions. Lets face it, Joe voter doesnt really give a rat's ass about the issue.
The WTO ruling is our longshot to go back to a grey legal area, which is where I think most of us want to be. Frank's bill isnt going to address the WTO issue and there will be no law saying all states must allow unfettered gambling if they have a track or lottery or wide area jackpot slot. I want it, you want it, but it isnt going to happen. Our best hope is a compromise between the gov't and Antigua to just go back to where we were. Say its illegal, dont travel to the US if youre a CEO, we wont request extradition because its unenforceable etc... If that deal makes it in the national papers Id be hugely suprised.
The antigambling crowd isnt as strong as you think. Among legislators ignorance(feigned or real) is the norm regarding remote gaming. What our biggest opponent is is the status quo that the UIGEA has made. If the DoJ has to vacate the indictments it has, the chances of new ones are slim to none, especially with all the other things going on there. Honestly, except for Kyl and Goodlatte, everyone that is involved in government wants this to go away. Paulson is sinking huge, i mean huge energy in China, and China trade issues. He might be the only intelligent SOB in the cabinent. I hope he makes the case to Bush that he cant move ahead with his cases there fighting against a case he has lost, and breaking the rules. If the Chinese move to litigating cases instead of resolving them ahead of time(usual route of WTO cases) it coudl be 4-5 years before there is any action. We all know Gonzales is fighting for his political life, so this is really back burner for him.
So best case scenario IMHO....Bush administration agrees to acknowledge there cant be a federal law restricting access to domestic gambling markets and not obligating the states to anything. The banking regs never come out. The president hopes the press keeps ignoring the issue. but if they don't, tony snow says its up to the states to say its illegal. The states really would have no enforcement mechanism if they even care. This is where the structure of the US government comes into play. The AG tells the states if they try to bring a cse, they will assert the commerce clause like they do in other small nasty spats like euthanasia and medical weed. Combined with the supremacy clause they can keep the states out of a lot of things. I also think the big nemesis that is the Christian Right is in disarray. You're right to look at what FOcus on the Family is doing, but they are a group in disarray and decline. Dobson is showing age, and he regrets some of his support for Bush. He had never been political before and that lack of experience in politics is showing in their organization. They are at a moment where they are losing their "champion" in 18 months with no likely successor, and they do not have a poltiical operator with cache, experience, and name recognition. Robertson is old, as is Dobson, and their memberships average ages are in the 50s or higher. Ralph Reid is totally discredited, and Falwell croaked. If we got back to a legal grey area, I think the most their influence gets is a plank at the Rep National Conv, and thats ingored by 99% of voters and pretty much all presidents.

[TheEngineer]

Nice post, Legislurker. I personally have a slightly different opinion on a couple of things, but I do think the world is moving toward what you described. People like us have to assist this movement, though.

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I think we are overinflating the mainstream importance of this.

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The U.S. did withdraw from the gaming sector of GATS. That's fairly indicative of their desire to not comply at this time. It's a strong statement. I agree with you about Joe Blow not caring...that's our opportunity to make a difference with an advocacy effort.

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The WTO ruling is our longshot to go back to a grey legal area

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Agree. It's a big long shot, but it's possible. Again, we need to do our part to create the politician atmosphere necessary for this outcome.

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The antigambling crowd isnt as strong as you think.

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While the current strength of the social conservatives is clearly on the down slope, they still have strength. Keep in mind that 1/3 of the House cosponsored HR 4777, the bill that banned most Internet interstate/international gambling, including poker. Also, the problem for us with Focus is that they are so rabidly anti-gambling. It’s not just a side issue for them. We're probably better off overestimating than underestimating them, as we're underdogs no matter what. If they can’t replace Dobson with someone anyone cares about, that’s bonus for us.

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I also think the big nemesis that is the Christian Right is in disarray.

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They're still strong, but they are weakening. They, with the neocons, took over the Republican Party not too long ago. Along with gerrymandered districts, they hoped to be able to stay in power by running against abortion and gays. They found last year that this approach won't work. As a result, they’re gradually starting to lose influence in the Republican Party. Also, they themselves are in some disarray, as you noted. The younger evangelicals are far more interested in fighting poverty and AIDS than in telling others what to do. We’re looking pretty good five years from now IF we do what we need to do now.

[redbeard]

just wanted to say thanks to jay for all the updates and posts. also wanted to thank skillgram and milton for their views on the subject. it definately educates us all on a rather complex issue that is no doubt very important to most of us on this forum.