MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)

[Micturition Man]

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tommy what games have you been playing for the past year?

it's out of question that the aggressiveness in games has SKYROCKETED.

so has variance. so the passive tight good games you played back in the day and experienced a 300BB downswing? doesn't tell us much. I didn't swing more than 300BB for almost 2 years and since then, I've had so many swings I'm doing good one month, the next I can hardly afford to play 50/100. not to say I'm not a big fish and I just deserve it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I really don't think the aggressiveness is the issue, I think the issue is playing in games where you have a lower EV.

It seems like a lot of you guys play in games where you have an EV of around 1 bb per 100, which by my standards at least indicates terrible game selection and that you are probably -EV in a lot of the lineups you play.

I basically agree with Tommy. Anything's possible but if you are reasonably game selective these ~1000 BB type downswings should be extremely rare.

And the game selection thing is not just a matter of appetite for risk. If you're playing in games where your EV is 1 BB per 100, unless the only game you play is LHE it's almost guaranteed there is a more profitable game somewhere else.