27s: disagree with SNGPT?

[Finnisher]

How often is Hero folding the BB next hand in your calculations? I assume ICM over-estimates Hero's EV with a 1100 stack and 200/400 blinds so the 11.6% for folding is probably too high.

With the stacks you've used for the next hand
UTG 1870
CO 3490
Btn 3615
SB 2975
Hero 1550

eg if Btn busts UTG in the hand above the next (2nd hand after OP) is:

CO 6160
Btn 2750
SB/Hero 1125
BB 3465

ICM says Hero will ITM 40%. I don't know but that seems kinda high? And I guess it is or there would be no need to do all the stuff you've done in the first place [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I still doubt that random players in the lower buy-ins are going to call wide enough to make this a -1% SNGPT push.

BTW, do you have a special program for the NE stuff or just SNGPT?

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
How often is Hero folding the BB next hand in your calculations?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero cannot fold the next hand, unless the whole table is ALLIN, and we have a chance of sneaking into the money. This will rarely happen.

Note that anything we do here, is -$EV or breakeven at best. The question is simply, what is the best out of bad options we have.

[Bubblefish]

Thanks for taking the time to reply.

Heros calling ranges against:
UTG 28,50 %
CO 32,70 %
Btn 43,00 %
SB 61,70 %

I am just using SNGPT to determine the equilibriums.

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for taking the time to reply.

Heros calling ranges against:
UTG 28,50 %
CO 32,70 %
Btn 43,00 %
SB 61,70 %

I am just using SNGPT to determine the equilibriums.

[/ QUOTE ]

looks reasonable, but imho too tight because:

1) the pushing ranges of the players, what do you use here? Is there a new version of SNGPT that automatically computes them? Note our calling requirements should ideally be player-dependent as well, but we don't have that info here.

2) when folding [in the BB], we get hit by SB again taking a substantial portion of our stack. We probably have to fold that hand, too.

[Bubblefish]

1)
Pushing ranges:
UTG 28,00 %
CO 41,90 %
Btn 54,50 %
SB 83,50 %

Unfortunately you have to play around with SNGPT yourself to find the equilibrium.

2)
Going forward another hand is too much for me… [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
2)
Going forward another hand is too much for me… [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's just useful to keep in mind that when folding the original hand, we might easily lose almost 40% our stack. Say we get 73o next hand and a more reasonable hand in the SB (but there's a lot of action) and bam, we sit there with 925 chips rather than 1575.

[elrudo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2)
Going forward another hand is too much for me… [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's just useful to keep in mind that when folding the original hand, we might easily lose almost 40% our stack. Say we get 73o next hand and a more reasonable hand in the SB (but there's a lot of action) and bam, we sit there with 925 chips rather than 1575.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I might better not let you all in on this little secret, but since no-one has mentioned this yet and because I learned a lot from the STT-forum:

making moves like this from UTG is reasonable, if and only if it is likely that neither of the blinds will bust out this hand.

The 'forward rotating button'-rule on Pokerstars makes that if either of the blinds gets busted this hand, you will skip the big Blind.

The situation this hand:
Hero (t1575)
CO (t1895)
Button (t3515)
SB (t3840)
BB (t2675)

In this case the SB is chipleader and the BB has a reasonably healthy chipstack.

His blind (BB) will very probably be attacked and he might get knocked out, but he needs a very good hand to call a push.

So, in this case I like the 97s push, in situations with desperate stacks in the blinds I prefer to hope for a blindskip.

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]

The 'forward rotating button'-rule on Pokerstars makes that if either of the blinds gets busted this hand, you will skip the big Blind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Elrudo, another detail to consider yes. However, BBs calling range will be fairly tight, so this would only have an impact say 10-15% of the time, and then BB will probably be favorite to win.