Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question

[Rotating Rabbit]

This is a dumb maths problem.

Dumb because its taking a simple concept like conditional probability and making it stupidly complex with no added value. Rather like asking someone to work out the first 200 prime numbers in their head for kicks. Completely pointless.

I call.

I don't understand the argument for folding. Sorry.

[jjigglers]

You're ahead 3:2 against his range.

Mathematically, if the re-raise big is essentially all-in, it's a -EV play, considering he only folds about 50% of the time, and when he calls, you're a 10:9 dog (the folds gain you $635, 50% of the time).

If you re-raise small, and he re-raises you (~25% of the time), and you call all-in (because you are now getting the right odds), you're about a 5:4 dog. The other 75% of the time where he calls, you're ahead 4:3 if you magically get all in no matter what flops.

Re-raise big = slightly -EV
Re-raise small = +EV assuming you get all in sooner or later, or ? if he folds to x% of boards and y% agression with Z hand.
Call = ? (we really don't know what happens on the flop)

I think the point of the question is to not push vs. this Villain.