200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?

[DirteAA]

I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

[SharkSandwich]

Dirte, what you're saying first of all is you didn't call, so we won't ever know what he had? Is that right?

Secondly I think you're overestimating image. You can't count on it, and opponents to react on it, at this level. Many opponents aren't observant enough, are too busy playing lots of tables, or just don't care.

There's a lot of opponents who call your PF raise with an underpair, and call the expected flop continuation bet, like wise with a suited connector containing a Jack. Because they're happy to be ahead of AK. Which is what you have.

When the Turn hits he realises the hand he was ahead (AK) he is now behind. He's happy to check.

When the River hits and you still check his thoughts could well be "damn?! he got nothing?!". And there comes the bluff. It seems you've given up on the pot.

And to say "he'd bluff a bigger amount" is fine. Except you can't just fold to small bets because they aren't bluffs, and call big bets because they might be. That's saying you're not willing to put a bit in to win the pot, but you'll put a lot in.

You think he checks JJ/55/44 on the Turn? I don't. You're only behind QQ and QJ. He could have either. If he has neither you're good.

[DirteAA]

[ QUOTE ]
Dirte, what you're saying first of all is you didn't call, so we won't ever know what he had? Is that right?

Secondly I think you're overestimating image. You can't count on it, and opponents to react on it, at this level. Many opponents aren't observant enough, are too busy playing lots of tables, or just don't care.

There's a lot of opponents who call your PF raise with an underpair, and call the expected flop continuation bet, like wise with a suited connector containing a Jack. Because they're happy to be ahead of AK. Which is what you have.

When the Turn hits he realises the hand he was ahead (AK) he is now behind. He's happy to check.

When the River hits and you still check his thoughts could well be "damn?! he got nothing?!". And there comes the bluff. It seems you've given up on the pot.

And to say "he'd bluff a bigger amount" is fine. Except you can't just fold to small bets because they aren't bluffs, and call big bets because they might be. That's saying you're not willing to put a bit in to win the pot, but you'll put a lot in.

You think he checks JJ/55/44 on the Turn? I don't. You're only behind QQ and QJ. He could have either. If he has neither you're good.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I did call. And that is why I am worried about being results oriented. But in retrospect I feel like I should have considered my image. But maybe you're right. I feel like this particular player pays as much attention to the games as I do, plus we were on 2 or 3 tables together. So he could easily see that I had been playing tight, but I could be wrong.

fwiw, he had JJ for a sneakily played top set.

But no, I wouldn't necessarily call a larger bet. The reason I called the river was b/c he bet so small; which gave me good odds b/c his range probably doesn't have me worse than 3:1.

Isura, why is betting the river better than c/c? Don't we fold out all hands we have beat and only get called, and probably raise, by all hands that have us beat? Plus, if we bet river and he raises we're committed to get all in and we are never ahead. Right?

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your hand ranges for villain are insanely tight. Who folds TT in this spot? Since he checked the turn he is going to have a monster or a hand with showdown value, not a hand that wants to bluff the river. So the play is to value-bet or check/fold here IMO. You guys are over-estimating how likely it is that players at small stakes will turn a made hand into a bluff in a big pot.

[DirteAA]

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[ QUOTE ]
I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your hand ranges for villain are insanely tight. Who folds TT in this spot? Since he checked the turn he is going to have a monster or a hand with showdown value, not a hand that wants to bluff the river. So the play is to value-bet or check/fold here IMO. You guys are over-estimating how likely it is that players at small stakes will turn a made hand into a bluff in a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know they're insanely tight, but I only came up with that range b/c of my tight image.

Maybe I am completely over analyzing this hand lol. But it is in these marginal situations that I think there is many bb/100 to be won/lost.

However, as many have already stated this is not a fold by any means. I just feel that his range is narrowed b/c of how tight I had been playing but then again I could be overestimating the thought process of villain; even though he seems to be a solid player.

In a vacuum this is an easy call and would only require 3 or 4 responses to the OP. But I am trying to go a little deeper than the standard situation.

I still don't understand why you think a bet is better than a c/c. I really don't think he is calling the river w/ a worse hand.

[MightySan]

Only a total rock, total weak tight player would fold here AK getting 3:1 odds. You have to catch a bluff only 1 time of 3 to get even. I think, you will catch it 2 of 3 or more often here after two checks on late streets.
If people see you are folding too often, you will be pushed around with such 1/2 pot bets all your remaining life.

[SharkSandwich]

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If people see you are folding too often, you will be pushed around with such 1/2 pot bets all your remaining life.

[/ QUOTE ]
And this was one of the many factors that tips it even more towards a call. If you can't catch a bluff with a hand this strong what do you need?
Even if we're ever so slightly -EV here I'd rather call. It'll earn you a little "if he checks a hand that strong twice I shouldn't just autobet him" in future hands.

I think isura's "he's got a checkdown-showdown hand or a monster" so we might as well B/F has some merit. BUT look at how many people think a fold is the clear play here to a halfpot bet, with a hand as strong as this. I'd wager it's over a 1/3rd.

So a stone cold bluff on this river (which essentially includes an underpair, or even JTish) isn't that bad an idea. If you look like you've given up on the pot (by 2xChecking) then you're asking someone to bet anything and nothing there. Any many villains would happily oblige.

[74o_Clownsuit]

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I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your hand ranges for villain are insanely tight. Who folds TT in this spot? Since he checked the turn he is going to have a monster or a hand with showdown value, not a hand that wants to bluff the river. So the play is to value-bet or check/fold here IMO. You guys are over-estimating how likely it is that players at small stakes will turn a made hand into a bluff in a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know they're insanely tight, but I only came up with that range b/c of my tight image.

Maybe I am completely over analyzing this hand lol. But it is in these marginal situations that I think there is many bb/100 to be won/lost.

However, as many have already stated this is not a fold by any means. I just feel that his range is narrowed b/c of how tight I had been playing but then again I could be overestimating the thought process of villain; even though he seems to be a solid player.

In a vacuum this is an easy call and would only require 3 or 4 responses to the OP. But I am trying to go a little deeper than the standard situation.

I still don't understand why you think a bet is better than a c/c. I really don't think he is calling the river w/ a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yea but after checking the turn he's probably not betting a worse made hand either.

And besides, c-bet dry flop/check turn/lead river screams weakness.