Derby Picks

[Bishop22]

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I honestly don't understand why Hard Spun, who has the best lineage of any horse in the field [according to a majority of the experts, although it's easy to check] looks like he's going off at 15-1 to 20-1.
Usually, the wise guys are all over the 'best-bred' horse with good odds, esp if he has speed and can win in the mud.

Is the 6-week layoff that scary after Barbaro's domination last year? What am I missing here?

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Hard Spun is indeed #1 pedigree, only marginally ahead of Saturday and CC. HDW data won't be out til Friday I'll post in-depth and mention if there pedigree numbers differ from Tomlinson.

The thing about pedigree is it only really applies when horses haven't been through a given distance or situation. That kind of applies to the Derby since that last furlong is big, but I think the races they have run to this point are more important. I think you can project the final furlong with a combination of pace of the past races and the pedigree data. Personally I give up unless the data reveals something, no reason to blow hundreds on exotics this year, I'd rather attack the undercard.