Derby Picks

[NajdorfDefense]

I honestly don't understand why Hard Spun, who has the best lineage of any horse in the field [according to a majority of the experts, although it's easy to check] looks like he's going off at 15-1 to 20-1.
Usually, the wise guys are all over the 'best-bred' horse with good odds, esp if he has speed and can win in the mud.

Is the 6-week layoff that scary after Barbaro's domination last year? What am I missing here?