good time for a combo bet v. a TAG? or do those bets not exist....

[aejones]

Yes, those bets do exist:

Merging Your Range

That is a post I've been meaning to make for about 4 months and this thread inspiried me to complete it.

ship ship mcgipp

[El Diablo]

TWP,

"It's a thin bet (be it a value bet or a bluff) so YOU DON'T KNOW WHICH ONE IT IS."

A two-way bet is one where you make a bet because sometimes better hands will fold and sometimes worse hands will call.

Not sure how that's any different than what you describe.

[gomberg]

Also, the arguments about "rational" opponents is bad. How often are people rational? Ranges change dramatically based on the situation, and opponents make mistakes that look irrational all the time. This is like all the economists that say market participants are rational...

As for the hand, I like a river bet here for the 2-way aspect of it - and it makes you tough to play. I like the term pressure bet as well.

[xxThe_Lebowskixx]

i read OP and TWP's post. thread over.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the arguments about "rational" opponents is bad. How often are people rational? Ranges change dramatically based on the situation, and opponents make mistakes that look irrational all the time. This is like all the economists that say market participants are rational...

As for the hand, I like a river bet here for the 2-way aspect of it - and it makes you tough to play. I like the term pressure bet as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would have been a bluff. He had 99 and river went chk chk. Great discussion, thanks to all for their comments.

dlpnyc21

[Alex-db]

After some thought, I feel like a 2 way bet is possible, but maybe only when playing live or when you otherwise have a really strong read, and against opponents who aren't too tricky.

It can happen when your opponent calls your bet on the flop and you have a strong read that he either made his standard call with a mid-high range or a hero call with bottom pair.

You then know from his standard range tendencies and his hero-call tendencies that he'll he'll fold most of his hands to a lot of heat, but you know that the few times he decided to start the hand with a hero call, he tells himself he is commited to follwing it through. This makes betting middle pair strongly profitable against the whole range.

Admittedly a very unusual/rare situation though.

[VanVeen]

since this thread is still getting views and i don't know how much you guys read the msnl board..


all,

a river bet is preferable to a check when the sum of [%opponent folds * pot size - %opponent call with better * bet size] and [%opponent calls with worse * (bet size + pot size)] is greater than the expectation of a check. that's it. there are no other meaningful criteria (the vague notion of meta-game notwithstanding).

value bet, bluff, and 'two-way bet' are arbitrary terms denoting bet types. based on their usage it's easy to see that 'value bets' derive most of their value from having worse hands call (equation 2). 'bluffs' derive most of their EV from getting better hands to fold (equation 1). a 'two way bet' has a more even admixture of each. it is a fact that when playing against players who vary their strategy over time according to unknown variables that occasionally the best play against the set of their posited ranges is to make value bets that aren't profitable unless they occasionally act as 'bluffs' and vice versa. done and done.

claiming that there exist no opponents who will 'sometimes call with worse but fold better' is quite beside the point. such paradoxical chimeras exist as useful probabilistic abstractions.

(deleted irrelevant stuff)

[xxThe_Lebowskixx]

bldswters has to be the king of these bets.

[DJ Sensei]

-the long run is much longer than you think
-great players' styles are constantly evolving as well, so that their ranges are always difficult to accurately estimate. this prevents accurate specific equity calculations in thin situations like this, and makes intuition and creativity more important.

thus, much of thin betting (which is all i think this whole idea really is) is short-term guesswork. you can either play a solid game without these bets, and lower your variance (though potentially be an easier opponent to read later) or choose to accept the potential higher variance in exchange for a strong advantage over your opponents in the future (if/when you adapt to the new dance of your actual and perceived ranges better than they do)


so, i think that the concept of a "two-way bet" or "value bluff" is rather ridiculous, as you can't hope for both results to occur. its simply a thin bet one way or another, and the particular results are mostly irrelevant so long as the scale of future success exceeds that of possible short-term variance/loss.

[EmpireMaker2]

[ QUOTE ]
bldswters has to be the king of these bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

prolly cause he was the most agressive 6max player ever?