Ram Vaswani speaks about that 'Golf Game'.

[Zele]

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What is the best indicator for what that expected playing level was? The easiest answer is simply the Play which he performed in those two days. If you adjust the Strokes to That level, you should get a payoff of zero.

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(1) I see no reason that his play on a given day should be the maximum likelihood estimate of his "expected play" on that day.

(2) If one were to accept your line of reasoning, no golf bet (and few other proposition bets) would ever be paid.