Would You Try It? Live Shenanigans (long rambling post)

[Jman28]

Seems like a close decision. I would usually shove I think.

Some things you have going for you are the fact that live players always think people hit their flush, he just booked a big win and is about to leave and therefore will be more content to give up a pot, and he sounds like the right kind of oppenent to make this move against.

There's a perfect level of experience/ability that you want your opponent to have here. You want him to be better than "OMG I have top set!!!!!!!!!! CALL!!!!!!" and good enough to bother putting people on hands, but still not advanced enough to understand bluffing with strong made hands like bottom set or two pair here.

A couple things going against you are that he likely has a set, maybe top set, and that if he does have top set, he likely has the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] which could help him talk himself into a call, thinking (stupidly) that the opponent wouldn't shove for value without the nuts.

I think this should work more than enough of the time, and be good for image if it doesn't. A lot depends on stuff that you're better at than me, Cero. Is he in the mood to book a decent win and go home? Does he seem like he could just go "Well I think you got it, but I just got these chips... might as well gamble with them," or something like that?

Also, does this Stephen guy hate you too? Does he hate everyone?

[stephenNUTS]

I don't hate ANYONE Jman28,I was just reading through TWO posts of cero z's,that were longer than "War and Peace",and was just trying to figure out his question ?

[luegofuego]

doesnt seem very close at all. put it in.

[GTL]

from my experience playing live 5-10nl, if you want to bluff, use the flush cards. from my other experiences at live 5-10nl don't try to bluff someone off a set of aces when you know they have it.

in this situation, i don't think it is obvious that villain has a set of aces. i think it is much more likely that hero has 2 pair or a smaller set. i don't mind a big raise here at all. it's a winning play against the player and the situation that is described here.

(you really set this up for a push to be right though. weak player, about to leave, always thinks his opponent has the nuts) obviously if all that is true we have to push here.

[cero_z]

[ QUOTE ]
from my experience playing live 5-10nl, if you want to bluff, use the flush cards. from my other experiences at live 5-10nl don't try to bluff someone off a set of aces when you know they have it.

in this situation, i don't think it is obvious that villain has a set of aces. i think it is much more likely that hero has 2 pair or a smaller set. i don't mind a big raise here at all. it's a winning play against the player and the situation that is described here.

(you really set this up for a push to be right though. weak player, about to leave, always thinks his opponent has the nuts) obviously if all that is true we have to push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

It IS obvious that the weak player in the hand has a set. The only other possibility is As and Qs, and that is a distant possibility, because of the flop play.

I "set it up to be a push" because this was a spot where all of the factors needed for the guy to fold a good hand seemed to be present, and yet, it still seems very dangerous to try to bluff a bad player off of top set. I know that the general plan when for a tough internet player coming into these passive games is to run it over; I'm asking if you'll take it this far. Luego says it's not close; that's what I'm asking. Do others agree or disagree?

These situations are worth so many BBs if you play them correctly that IMO they're worth talking about. How far do you take it? Let's say that you KNOW he has AAA, QQQ, or JJJ when he bets the turn. Would you call that bet on the turn with air, knowing that there are 13 cards that put a 3-flush or a 4-straight on the board (without pairing the board)?

Also, FWIW, I wouldn't try to rep the straight on the turn, because a bad player needs to muster so much psychological strength to fold a set in the first place, I think adding the fact that he'd have 10 outs if he was behind would make folding impossible for him.

Thanks for all the comments so far, and feel free to add whatever.

[KRANTZ]

cero, definitely shove. he's leaving, you think he wants to explain to his friends/girlfriend/whoever that he was up huge and then lost it all on the last hand? or want to deal with it himself? he'll see the board, look down at his stack and still see enough money behind where he can walk away a "winner", and fold (and i don't think he'll be that reluctant, either).

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
cero, definitely shove. he's leaving, you think he wants to explain to his friends/girlfriend/whoever that he was up huge and then lost it all on the last hand? or want to deal with it himself? he'll see the board, look down at his stack and still see enough money behind where he can walk away a "winner", and fold (and i don't think he'll be that reluctant, either).

[/ QUOTE ]
i think this is very optimistic. i played a hand with a very similar context a few months ago: it was a 2-5 1k max-buy game at the venetian, a kid had his 2k in chips all racked up and was even standing up already. i told him to straddle so he could be sure to play his last hand, but he wouldn't, and said, "i'm only playing AA." he got dealt his hand, bent down to look at it, raised to 40 bucks and sat back down. "so you really got aces!", several ppl at the table chimed in.

i had 76s and called, and told him flat-out, "i've got a nutcracker, i'm gonna snap you off." another player also called, and the flop came something like 7 3 2.

utg kid overbet the pot, like $150, and again i told him, "i'm gonna make a loose call here just so i can bust you."

turn was another 7. kid checked, i bet $500, he thought for a while and called. river's like a 9 or something, he checked again, i shoved for like $1300, whatever he had left (i had him covered), and after tanking again he put his chips in with, indeed, AA.

moral of the story: ppl don't like to fold aces. also, ppl don't like to fold sets. also, ppl don't like to fold sets of aces.