when giving free cards is better than betting vulnerable hands

[illuminati]

Jesus this is terrible...

"checking allows me to steer clear of losing money the 20 percent of the time villain fills up."

His range is this tight?

"now i'm almost certain he has a set of aces, at worst a set of 10s."

[CallYNotRaise06]

isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

[ceczar]

[ QUOTE ]

a+b+c

0,19*-57K+0,12*138K+0,69*300K = +234,390$ which is actually 9000$ less than going all in on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

using your formulation of the problem, but converting it to 2+2 favored form (where fold = 0) and correcting mistakes (i think):

108,000 in pot on turn. he has 97k left
if you get it in now, you gain 205k 77.27% of the time and lose 97k 22.73% of the time = 136.31k EV

if you check:
22.73% of the time you have to fold river = 0 EV
63.63% of the time you get allin on river = 205k EV
13.63% of the time a Q or J comes = X

here's the indifference equation:
22.73% * 0 + 63.63% * 205k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k
130.45k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k
X = (136.31k - 130.45k) / 13.63%
X = 43k

43k = 108k + BetSize * Call%

based on these numbers, even if he folded every time on the river you would gain money by checking the turn.

another way to put it:
by checking:
63.63% of the time all the money goes in anyway
22.73% of the time you save your remaining 97k
13.63% of the time you lose his remaining 97k when the scare card hits

clearly even if you check behind on the river when the Q or J comes you're better off by checking the turn

[innerpeace]

[ QUOTE ]
isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

[/ QUOTE ]

generally, yes it's fantastic to get your money in as a huge favorite. i'm not arguing that pushing isn't profitable. however, i'm saying that checking the turn is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, even more profitable.

granted the circumstances / situation are a little unusual.
but, at the same time, the concept that you are better off checking a hand when your opponent has many outs to beat you is not something most poker players realize can be true.

[BKiCe]

daut talked about this concept in his blog not very long ago

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

[/ QUOTE ]

generally, yes it's fantastic to get your money in as a huge favorite. i'm not arguing that pushing isn't profitable. however, i'm saying that checking the turn is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, even more profitable.

granted the circumstances / situation are a little unusual.
but, at the same time, the concept that you are better off checking a hand when your opponent has many outs to beat you is not something most poker players realize can be true.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's akin to the idea of waiting for a safe turn to get allin. Just less often used.

[ QUOTE ]
isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

[/ QUOTE ]

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus this is terrible...

"checking allows me to steer clear of losing money the 20 percent of the time villain fills up."

His range is this tight?

"now i'm almost certain he has a set of aces, at worst a set of 10s."

[/ QUOTE ]

He put in 100 BBs on the flop; I'll buy it.