when giving free cards is better than betting vulnerable hands

[innerpeace]

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i think villain folds anything except a set

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and will give me enough of a read that i can confidently fire again on the turn if i don't think he has a set

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huh?


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the sentiment i was trying to convey is that if he decides to call the flop without a set, i feel like i'll have enough of a read to know that and fire another shell.

[AragornX151]

i don't play this high or anything near it, but i think this is a really interesting concept and would like to participate if you don't mind, innerpeace...

It being live clearly makes a big difference...what if you widened his range to include, say, top 2 pair here? would that make a difference in your play?

[Kala1928]

Going all in on the turn with 81% equity equals 300,000$*0,81=+243,000$

Checking the turn behind and folding when the board pairs equals 300,000$*-0,19=-57,000$
I'm not sure how the amount of dollars you have already invested in the pot affects this option.

Checking the turn behind and calling/pushing non pairing river equals 300,000$

Checking the turn behind and valuebetting a Q/J river equals 108,000$+(n*y) which is sick hard to calculate because you need to know amount to bet n and frequency of him calling y. I'll just use 60,000$ and 50% for the sake of making the calculation.

Checking the turn behind and valuebettin a Q/J river equals 108,000$+60,000$*0,5=138,000$
Now this happens 12% of the time you check the turn behind.

So checking the turn behind will result in

a) board pairing 19% of the time
b) river being Q/J 12% of the time
c) river being a brick 69% of the time

note that by checking the turn behind ev wise you not only lose the pot 19% of the time but you actually give up a partion of the pot in S$ to your opponent(19% of the pot).

a+b+c

0,19*-57K+0,12*138K+0,69*300K = +234,390$ which is actually 9000$ less than going all in on the turn.


My intuition also says that because hero has already invested almost 1/3 of his stack to the pot not going allin with an 81% chance of winning a big pot is not correct. This would make more sense if hero has only invested a small amount (less than 19%) of his stack but is still sure he will stack villain on a non-pairing river card.

[innerpeace]

kala, thanks for providing the analysis.

i think, though, that your numbers/analysis is off. for example, i don't understand why you say i'm -57k for checking behind the turn and folding if the board pairs.

also, keep in mind that if i put my opponent on specific hands, then that accounts for two cards. so there are 44 cards left.

i see where your intuition is coming from, though it's incorrect. there is a tradeoff since 6 cards will scare villain. however, that is more than offset by the 10 cards that improve villain's hand. if you do the ev calculation with the correct probabilities then you will find that checking behind comes out ahead of pushing the turn.

also, i also expect villain will call a reasonable size bet on the river even if a q or j fall.

[ceczar]

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kala, thanks for providing the analysis.

i think, though, that your numbers/analysis is off.

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do you agree with mine?

[innerpeace]

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do you agree with mine?

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ceczar, very well put. i think your analysis makes the concept that much clearer.

[illuminati]

Jesus this is terrible...

"checking allows me to steer clear of losing money the 20 percent of the time villain fills up."

His range is this tight?

"now i'm almost certain he has a set of aces, at worst a set of 10s."

[CallYNotRaise06]

isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

[ceczar]

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a+b+c

0,19*-57K+0,12*138K+0,69*300K = +234,390$ which is actually 9000$ less than going all in on the turn.

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using your formulation of the problem, but converting it to 2+2 favored form (where fold = 0) and correcting mistakes (i think):

108,000 in pot on turn. he has 97k left
if you get it in now, you gain 205k 77.27% of the time and lose 97k 22.73% of the time = 136.31k EV

if you check:
22.73% of the time you have to fold river = 0 EV
63.63% of the time you get allin on river = 205k EV
13.63% of the time a Q or J comes = X

here's the indifference equation:
22.73% * 0 + 63.63% * 205k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k
130.45k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k
X = (136.31k - 130.45k) / 13.63%
X = 43k

43k = 108k + BetSize * Call%

based on these numbers, even if he folded every time on the river you would gain money by checking the turn.

another way to put it:
by checking:
63.63% of the time all the money goes in anyway
22.73% of the time you save your remaining 97k
13.63% of the time you lose his remaining 97k when the scare card hits

clearly even if you check behind on the river when the Q or J comes you're better off by checking the turn

[innerpeace]

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isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

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generally, yes it's fantastic to get your money in as a huge favorite. i'm not arguing that pushing isn't profitable. however, i'm saying that checking the turn is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, even more profitable.

granted the circumstances / situation are a little unusual.
but, at the same time, the concept that you are better off checking a hand when your opponent has many outs to beat you is not something most poker players realize can be true.