yellowsub throws a sick min-raise my way

[Josh.]

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Option 2: Call/fold turn. Odds aren't good enough to call to spike an 8 or backdoorflush. Hands that Yellowsub might be bluffing with are either better than ours or have significant outs. We can checkdown and still lose. Also leave some% chance that we get bluffed out.

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if you're calling because you think you have the best hand, then not having sufficient pot odds is not an argument. and the chances that he bluffs given the action and size of the pot (all in is less than half pot) are pretty small. even without a read that's a pretty safe assumption. the only real problem is you're going to get sucked out on 25% of the time on average

the reason folding feels so exploitable is because he shouldn't be bet-folding. once you ignore that he once had the option of checking, i don't think folding sounds so bad

but how is this all so read-based? most players aren't capable of shoving it on the turn as a bluff. if i'm OP and i have AK, i'm just calling the flop to see if he wants to bluff the turn. sub has to fear that. so he won't bluff hardly ever. so basically he's just gambling that sub is bluffing right now and won't follow through. it's only 120 to 534 that that's the case. even if we ignore our suckout equity and say that he sucks out 25% of the time, it works out that if he's bluffing 25% of the time for it to be a good call. so how good a read do you really need to answer that one simple question of whether he's bluffing 25% of the time here?

to answer this question you can just put yourself in sub's situation since we can't think back to whether he's done this before and what he's had. it's 3-handed. you're sub and called your opponent's presumably wide 3-bet. he bets a K high dry flop. his range is probably pretty polarized between hands that can't take any heat and ones that want to get it in, because lots of the QQ and A8 type hands will check, while the hopeless T9dd hands will definitely fire. the pot is 300. it costs 120 to minraise to hopefully just push him off the hands that don't want to play anymore. does that sound like a good plan to you? it sounds like a good one to me. so is it safe to assume that even without ANY specific read of sub, that he MIGHT be capable of thinking like this? i'd say so. how many unpaired hands or pairs under 77 can he have preflop? probably a fair amount.

so we know he can be bluffing, and we know he needs to be bluffing 25%. we know there aren't that many big hands he can have but there are lots of unpaired cards like JTs and AQ, and he could be stabbing with like 66. so it's probably a reasonable assumption, even without a read, that he's bluffing enough, even if, in reality, yellowsub86 never bluffs here. you're playing against the range of players that fit his description

i just spewed a bunch of words but i hope it at least makes some sense