I have to fold KK prelop here, right?

[Sparta45]

Wiggs, I *think* you're right, but just to play devil's advocate here....if shorty had something like A-Q and button has something like A-J and board comes something like A, T, 9, 6, 2....our hero would be out.

Since short stack only has 300 compared to hero's 2700, (or 12% of his stack) wouldn't hero need to be more than 88% sure that this type of scenario would not play out? I'm not sure that we can be more than 88% sure (ignoring ICM calcs too). Doesn't that make this a fold?

[Finnisher]

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Wiggs, I *think* you're right, but just to play devil's advocate here....if shorty had something like A-Q and button has something like A-J and board comes something like A, T, 9, 6, 2....our hero would be out.

Since short stack only has 300 compared to hero's 2700, (or 12% of his stack) wouldn't hero need to be more than 88% sure that this type of scenario would not play out? I'm not sure that we can be more than 88% sure (ignoring ICM calcs too). Doesn't that make this a fold?

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ICM probably wants this scenario to happen less than 12% cos the payout is so flat. But shortie-biggie-hero will almost never happen with the ranges they're likely on. Put a similar situation to SNGWiz and see the %'s from the details. eg shortie on 15%, biggie on 6%, s-b-h is about 6%. So basically we can be sure that we will bust OOTM in this hand less than 12% (or be more than 88% to not have your AQ/AJ-scenario happen).

[guppy]

Thanks for all replies.

As you might have guessed, what I actually did was call and come in third best. Big stack pushed allin with aces (ouch) and small stack had 89o and made a straight.

[Kibby]

Don't worry about it. This happens like every 50 billion sngs. Unless you're Suzzer and then you're Improbability Drive kicks you in the nuts while robbing your Stars account.

Which gives me my idea for my new avatar. . .

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Thanks for all replies.

As you might have guessed, what I actually did was call and come in third best. Big stack pushed allin with aces (ouch) and small stack had 89o and made a straight.

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