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  #1  
Old 02-23-2007, 12:42 AM
IsaacAsimov IsaacAsimov is offline
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Default Re: NL50 (6): Bottom set, ugly board, pretty fish

I woudln't say this is a turbo muck. a) you don't have bottom set and b) assuming he has the straight, you have 10 live outs. You have odds of 3.5-1, you could call and fold the river unimproved. This may look strange, but you have the odds and implied odds to do so.
Why bet so little on the turn? I think you open yourself to bluffs in such a spot. You could check behind and take a free river card. This guy isn't really aggresive so he could theoretically have a 7 here.
Calling the turn here and folding the river unimproved is + EV imo.
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Old 02-23-2007, 12:48 AM
fooz fooz is offline
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Default Re: NL50 (6): Bottom set, ugly board, pretty fish

Folding to a 6.50 bet on the River with a $30+ pot? ..really?
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Old 02-23-2007, 12:54 AM
IsaacAsimov IsaacAsimov is offline
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Default Re: NL50 (6): Bottom set, ugly board, pretty fish

I just saw that I miscalculated the stack of villain. But theoretically it is +EV, just looks really silly and you'd probably talk yourself into calling. Shoving probably isn't good against his range, so folding would be best I'd guess (probably for your table image aswell). I think giving up a small edge here is good if you can push a bigger one against villain later.
Can you explain to me what you were thinking when you bet 5 $ on the turn?
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