50nl 6max: TPGK facing river bet, call or fold?

[peyote_sandwich]

Villain is 20/15 after 50 hands.

Effective stacks are 160bb.

Does he open with 66, 77? Since I have Ad busted flush looks unlikely. Does AK call my flop cbet?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($16.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $10</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($36.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $15</font>, Hero calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($66.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $40</font>, Hero ?

[Unknown Soldier]

raise pf is a bit big imo but w/e.

Flop, meh idk would he call your hige pf raise with anything other then TT+ AK? If not you should probably c/f this flop.

He could well call you with AK, idk though I haven't been playing with the guy, your cbet is q. weak. I don't see him doing this with a hand you beat, i doubt he bluffs that often on the river he certainly wouldn't bet that much with AJ would he? It's probably a close fold most 50NL players wouldn't bluff with this much.

My guess would be AA that makes the most sense, AK being a close second.

[King Spew]

[ QUOTE ]
Does AK call my flop cbet?



[/ QUOTE ]

At times, yes from a 20/15.

I think you are ahead and should call. Villain has QQ-88 here alot after calling your PFR. You told him on the turn that you didn't like the A. He's value betting a good PP IMO.

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
He's value betting a good PP IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

that's one hell of a value bet w/ 2nd pair

[King Spew]

Could be, but I think he puts OP on QQ-99 and wants to fold him out. So VB with a dash of FE.

[Unknown Soldier]

yeah that would make alot of sense, it's just not many players at 50NL would be this much as a bluff. If he's capable then I'd call. Readless I think it's a close fold.

[barryc83]

I seriously doubt he value bets KK/QQ/JJ on the river. Its not impossible though, the thing is you def look scared by checking the turn when the A peels off (representing a hand like KK-JJ). Would an unknown really float the flop with overs? I dunno, reads would be great. I hate underrepping my hand and then folding, it feels weak, I just have a feeling I'm gonna see AA/AK here a lot, or even a set bc he couldve called pf being 160 bb deep.

[DerrtySlime]

ya u certainly repped your hand weakly. If he was very aggressive i would be much more inclined to call river because he can easily think you have nothing at all.

[dirtysanchez]

if you dont bet the turn i think you need to call the river.

[Hank Scorpio]

I'm calling this