Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.

[stjohnychan]

This is a nice subtle little hand.

I'd agree that you have to play AJs here. Six handed (5 really, because UTG folded) you've gotta feel pretty good going in. The 3x the big blind raise is pretty standard and I don't think anyone's going to argue w/ that..

The flop is where it gets interesting. You don't have any read on your opponent by this point? I would think that almost 2/3rds of the way through a tourny you need to have seen at least a couple show downs from the villain. Is he what Registrar calls "a complete spaz"? In my experience at this limit, even this far in a tourny there are plenty of those. So has he ever shown down some paint like KQ or even an underpair? Or, if he's not a spaz but just trying too hard: How many hands has he been playing recently/how aggressively? Have you seen him try to use position before? If he thinks he can take a pot based on late position I think that loosens up his call requirements. Many people tighten up this close to the bubble, and if he's a decent player he may be trying to take advantage of that.

So what's your move on the flop? It's weird, I agree w/ most of the analysis above but reach a different result. I think most times Hero bets, Villain correctly folds all the worse hands and either calls or raises all the better hands. And as they say, poker is about inducing mistakes from your opponent, so any move likely to induce a correct play can't be the best option.

But like you say: he is going to take a stab at this pot if you check. Again, I'd like some read based on his past play to back up your 80% stab rate here, but knowing nothing but the situation that sounds reasonable. So, since I agree w/ Beenben and some others that you're committed to this hand, and I agree w/ you Villan's gonna stab at it I say check and then push all in.

The other argument for this is your Q. I know it's the weaker force but I think it's important this near the bubble. If you let the hand go passively here you'll have 2460 chips-- basically tied for last place at your table. You're also heading into the blinds the next two hands. So unless you get some cards the next two hands or the table goes passive, you'll be in last place, 4 of the other 5 players at the table will have twice your stack, and you'll basically be reduced to one and a half move poker. This is not a good place to be, especially because you said your ambition was to reach as high as possible- rather than hanging on into the money.

In your post I think the key was when you said "if I check...I won't have any idea of my opponents hand." This shows even more clearly then your later 80% that you beleive your opponent is gonna push with anything he called your earlier bet with. I'd definitly check here and plan on going all in...

(Also, one stupid question-[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]- what is FL? I looked in the Acronym Dictionary and coudln't find it).

[gerilege]

I don't have any read, I was moved to the table a few hands ago, and I haven't seen him playing a single hand.

FL is fixed limit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I rarely play any tourneys, but I have a bit of experience in reading boards like that holding AJs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. But you know the tricky possibility that enables the players to raise more than a small or a bigbet confuses me...

Definitely a double-edged sword here. I agree that if I would like to commit myself to the hand, I should rather do that by checking first.
I assume that you would call an all-in here after checking? But would you always push after your opponent bet? Or would you let your opponent continue bluffing by just calling his flop bet? (If it's not an all-in bet of course...)

[stjohnychan]

I would probably push against any bet.

What are the possibilities?

He could min bet. What does this tell you? He's a bad player. Post-Oak bet, doyle hates it, but its everywhere. Either he's got a monster and he's transparently milking you, or he's weak and taking a pathetic stab at the pot. Both plays are so common they don't really give you any more information and based on your position in the tourny I still want all my chips in now. Would he keep betting at it if you smooth call? Hard to say-- he might make another min bet for $300, again either if he's milking you or if he's weakly bluffing. But if he's bluffing I think he's more likely to check it down at this point unless he improves. I think any player who would bluff weakly on the flop and turn against that board might be loose enough to call your check raise all in.

He could make a standard bet: somewhere in the 1/2 pot to pot range of $550-$1125. Here I don't think there is too much difference between calling now or raising. Even if he bets $550, you call- the pot is $2225 and you've got $1910 left. There it seems to me one of you is going to bet the turn and if you're committed to your hand you'll end up all in anyway. At least if you check raise now you're not letting him see any cards for free.

He could overbet the pot. This is kinda like the min bet in that its obviously a mistake but it doesn't tell you which way. Either he was slowplaying AA and hit a set but got nervous at the "drawtastic" board, or he was hoping to get lucky w/ 22 and didn't and panicked. Either way his all-in is prob a -EV move, but he made it. Here I'd still call-- Hopefully Caro's Stong means Weak Law is at work and I'm way ahead. This overbet to me suggests an inexperienced player more likely to have crap then have me dominated, and at least a couple of the times I am dominated I'll hit my K for the straight and really wreck the Villains life.

So no matter what it looks like I'm pushing after checking.

(Also I am pretty sure I am spelling Villain wrong and have a sneaking suspicion it might be Villian. But I can't fold it now, I mean I've used it like 12 times so I'm post committed, right?)