Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to

[Death Valley]

All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

[GrannyMae]

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All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

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hiya rollaJ!!

i have not read the other threads yet, but i sure see the indian boy in top 12. also, if producers feel that it would make for good TV, they will manipulate it so the boy AND his sister are top 12 (maybe top 2).

it is, of course, too early. but these are the 2 that are twitching my idol radar.

of course, we have not seen the winner, as there have been no southern audition shows.

[smbruin22]

i agree with everything said so far....

great value has been in good singers with nice personalities... and that indian kid (the boy) qualifies big-time (very likable and they'll get his look fixed up somewhat)

and against the slick, marginally talented like ace last year (although he did seem like a nice guy, but he basically was amazing on one song and got 3-1 odds to win very early)

[mynamewastaken]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

[/ QUOTE ]

hiya rollaJ!!

i have not read the other threads yet, but i sure see the indian boy in top 12. also, if producers feel that it would make for good TV, they will manipulate it so the boy AND his sister are top 12 (maybe top 2).

it is, of course, too early. but these are the 2 that are twitching my idol radar.

of course, we have not seen the winner, as there have been no southern audition shows.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indian boy will make it through. Girl will be cut at the last possible time before she is presented to the voting public... I think it's when they split them into 3 different rooms or whatever. She'll be in a different room from the bro and he will get through and she will not.

Crackbaby is my fav voice so far. Expect her to go far (but won't win... too much of a Fantasia vibe?)

Jordin Sparks was good, but she won't make it too far because of the backlash that comes from having a privileged upbringing.

Shakira look-alike won't get past the semis. If she does, she will be the 1st one eliminated in the top 12.

There was one girl in Minny... I think her name was Sarah, that got through but flew under the radar. Watch out for her.

Army chick with the 9/11 reference actually has a decent shot, considering how piss-poor the talent pool is this year.

None of the guys have impressed me yet. The one with the afro had a good voice but I found his attitude annoying. He will drop out 7th-4th imo, unless he pulls a Mario.

I placed a prop bet on the winner being o23.5 at -120. The price will only get worse from there as the judges start saying things like "you're too young for this competition" and "you're 16... you can't sing Whitney Houston". The age of the winner has been trending upward, and they raised it in season 4 to 28 because America is out of talent. The only way a younger person can win is if it is a 16 y.o. who just became eligible for the show, but the producers seem very averse to promoting kids (not sure why... maybe the preteens who would buy the album just download it instead?)

I also think a prop on a female winner is the right way to go, but at -140 I'm holding off. The producers will artificially inject parity by putting through some sub-par guys, so there should be a window right at the start of the semis where a female winner is offered at close to even money.

Just my 0.02

[dieharder]

I think I would watch the army/navy people closely, they might get a lot more votes than their performance alone call for.

[smbruin22]

you may or may not realize that the minnesota/seattle people (or most of them) have already been to hollywood and either been cut or put thru.... i think that's right and i think i read that here (if not it was google groups).

moderate spoiler alert........


some of the people you guys are speculating on betting on are already gone.

[mynamewastaken]

To me such a big part of the game is being ahead of the market, taking advantage of insider info, etc. that we can't intelligently discuss betting on the show unless we can post spoilers. Are we allowed to?

The only problem I guess is it's a public forum, so by posting it you could cause the line to move. But you gotta figure it will move eventually anyway...

[GrannyMae]

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I think I would watch the army/navy people closely, they might get a lot more votes than their performance alone call for.

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this may have been the case several years ago, but not now. there is as much sympathy/support for servicepeople as there is for GW's politics. sad, but true.

the only army person to ever advance was josh gracin iirc, and he was awful.