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Old 01-04-2007, 05:27 PM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Default Re: Horse Racing- Help?

Yes it is very, very difficult for an individual, especially one with a limited amount of leisure time, to beat the races. If you go to work all week and then go to the track or OTB on Saturday and pick up a DRF to handicap you going to find it near impossible especially if you are betting into the pari-mutuel pool.

The average takeout across major tracks is probably 17.5% for the win pool. Tom Ainslie in his book: 'The Complete Guide to TB Racing' talks about "getting this number down", which I think is a great way to look at it. The first thing you can do these days is to bet with an off-shore book. Pinny reduces the takeout at most tracks by 7% to 10%, and at NYRA tracks by 4% to 11% (by the way you should be betting NYRA tracks through 5dimes for the 10% payout bonus). We are only talking about win bets here, there is absolutely no reason to bet exotics until you have proven you can pick +ROI winners, for one thing the takeout is higher, and for another picking minor finishers is less skill and more luck.

Ok that was the easy part of "getting the number down", next you need knowledge, knowledge of what you are looking at in the PPs or Thorograhps or whatever tool you are going to use. The book I mentioned above along with Davidson's Picking Winners and Quinn's Condition Book are the required reading, yes they are a little old but I haven't seen any modern books that compare.

I'm off to get my wisdom teeth ripped out, I may write some more later or I might just enjoy my Vicadin enduced haze.
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Old 01-04-2007, 05:30 PM
Donk4Life Donk4Life is offline
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Default Re: Horse Racing- Help?

good luck with the teeth. Any way we can bet on that?
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Old 01-04-2007, 05:33 PM
Donk4Life Donk4Life is offline
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Default Re: Horse Racing- Help?

Also, do you believe Pick 6 bets are -EV. With the carryovers, they have to be +EV, right?
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Old 01-04-2007, 06:55 PM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Default Re: Horse Racing- Help?

[ QUOTE ]
good luck with the teeth. Any way we can bet on that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pay the quick and painless @ -800. Pick 6's require deep rolls but are great for syndicates especially when there are carryovers. Technically if the carryover is greater than 25% of the pool any bet would provide a positive return in the long run but I don't think that happens too often as the carryover insures an influx of both sharp and public money. I should be rolled to take routine shots at pick 6s in the next year but I don't know much about them at this point.
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