15/30 AK

[bilbo-san]

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the way the hand was played, I'm not too concerned about a flush.

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What in the play of the hand leads you to that conclusion?

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Why would he bet into the PFR on the flop with a flush draw?

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Because of the principle: "if you are going to call a bet, it is better to bet yourself"? What if the BB held 10d9d? That would mean he had 15 outs = about 60% equity. 8d7d? 9 outs = roughly 36% equity.


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You contradict yourself. With Td9d, a thinking player would much rather check-raise than bet into the PFR, because that gets the most money into the pot with a monster hand. And villain would almost certainly 3-bet on the flop with a hand like that, rather than stop-and-go.

Also, If villain had bet a flush draw, he'd probably prefer to check-raise Hero, because that collects him the most bets on the turn; if Hero raises his turn bet, this likely drives out his other customers, which is the last result anyone with a made flush would want here.