15/30 AK

[UCLAseetoK]

Call and hope to get two overcallers.

If the pot was 3 way though, easy raise.

[busted]

I think the debate about overcalls is secondary. I agree with the raise on the flop. But IMO, a major mistake was made on the turn by calling a single bet and not raising. On the turn, the pot is big (9 BB so far) and you've now got a nut flush draw in addition to the nut straight draw. You've got to protect this hand and try to drive opponents out. I'd have raised the turn. You'd create a difficult decision for both LMP and SB to CC 2 bets, given the pot odds and number of opponents. With BB's hesitation on the river, he may have folded a raise on the turn, too. You definitely don't want to give 3 opponents another draw on the river to beat you -- without paying a price.

[nathanielt]

I don't see how raising can possibly be better than an overcall here. By raising most likely LMP and SB will fold. You make one extra bet when you're ahead and assuming he would 3 bet with a better hand you lose 2 when you're behind. By overcalling there's a good chance at least one of them will call. So when you have the best hand you gain 1-2 more bets and when you have a worse hand you don't lose any extra bets. If SB or LMP decide to checkraise I think it's pretty obvious you're beat and can fold, although I'd probably still call based on pot size, but I'd feel wrong doing it. lol

[Elevens]

Call.

[7stud]

[ QUOTE ]
the way the hand was played, I'm not too concerned about a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
What in the play of the hand leads you to that conclusion?

[ QUOTE ]
Why would he bet into the PFR on the flop with a flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because of the principle: "if you are going to call a bet, it is better to bet yourself"? What if the BB held 10d9d? That would mean he had 15 outs = about 60% equity. 8d7d? 9 outs = roughly 36% equity.

[ QUOTE ]
LMP and SB would have to be quite foolish not to raise their flush on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? There was a bettor and a raiser on the flop indicating someone might hold a pair, so it seems reasonable to me that one of those players would bet the turn to prevent any single diamond holding from getting a free card to make a flush on the river.

So, how do you analyze that hand beyond "I think this.."?

[toss]

What means more about BB's hand? The ten second pause or the way he played it on the last 3 streets? I'd also think LMP or SB would checkraise the turn. Raase the river because 6BBs > 3BBs.

[gopnik]

I think it's a clear call. You get 3-bet by a flush and make the same or more money when ahead by letting people call behind.

[PTjvs]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the debate about overcalls is secondary. I agree with the raise on the flop. But IMO, a major mistake was made on the turn by calling a single bet and not raising. On the turn, the pot is big (9 BB so far) and you've now got a nut flush draw in addition to the nut straight draw. You've got to protect this hand and try to drive opponents out. I'd have raised the turn. You'd create a difficult decision for both LMP and SB to CC 2 bets, given the pot odds and number of opponents. With BB's hesitation on the river, he may have folded a raise on the turn, too. You definitely don't want to give 3 opponents another draw on the river to beat you -- without paying a price.

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly can't see a turn raise as anything but spewing. Two players behind you have CCed a flop raise, so a flopped flush draw behind you is definiately possible, and you cannot fold to a 3bet. THREE other players have shown interst in the hand to the tune of two bets on the flop, I cannot imagine you will win this hand UI no matter what you do. This is a pure drawing situation, and you need to hit your draw as cheaply as possible, since you are never winning the hand unless you make something on the river.

It seems to me that you'd want to protect a made hand with one card to come, not a draw since you are never cleaning up any outs here.

jvs

[Bluffoon]

The only one who could reasonably have a flush here is the BB. You would have to hate money not to raise the turn with the flush if you were LMP or SB. Even so I think that going for the overcall is correct in this spot. I don't see a worse hand calling two cold and the bb is going to sock it to you when he does have the flush.

[duckman]

I like a call here- go for the overcalls. Signifcant chance someone has a flush here and personally sans read couldn't fold to a reraise.