The Two Point Conversion When Eight Down

[TimTimSalabim]

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think Yeti made a good point. A team who makes a comeback like this most likely has a greater win percentage than 50% when making it to OT. Id say this percentage (of course this percentage would always be an estimate the coach would have to make) would be big enough to swing the decision to a kick the majority of the time.

So maybe the decision to kick should be based on how the team fell behind in the first place, if they fell behind because of a few fluke plays, then go ahead and kick, but if they fell behind because they were getting their ass handed to them and then made some fluke plays and came back the decision should be to go for 2.

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Given no other information but that they are currently down by 14, it is much more likely that they are the weaker team. The fact that some small percentage of the time they will come back to score two touchdowns in regulation does not change that fact.