Tricky turn

[Dane S]

Hmmm, first instinct is checkraise but it's not too farfetched to imagine him checking behind QQ or even AA/AK given his numbers and the scariness of the board. These guys in my experience are not thinking value. They play scared and will go to great lengths to avoid a checkraise, so I think seeing him check behind you is a real danger, and this would be a very unfortunate loss of value. That said, betting when we could have pulled off a checkraise is also a very unfortunate loss of value given the donk sandwiched between you. Do you have a more detailed read on CO than the numbers give? My feeling is it will take some math to solve this one. Anyone up for some Bayesian number crunching? It should be possible to figure out about what percentage of the time CO must bet AA/AK/QQ before a checkraise becomes most profitable. I think we can assume the donk is usually coming along... of course there are also some disaster scenarios where he's beating us and perhaps a few where he peeled flop very light and will now fold turn. But I would guess that 75%+ of the time he's just going to call along like a good donk should.

In sum, I don't know. Leaning towards bet I think, but convincing numbers could shift me back towards c/r easily.