The Two Point Conversion When Eight Down

[retleftolc]

Here is an article on the subject.

Linkypooh

You can also go to footballoutsiders.com for similar discussions. Its like a "Moneyball" for football.

ret

[PairTheBoard]

So the real average 1 point conversion rate is more like 96%, throwing the decision even more in favor of Going For Two right away.

Also, none of this factors in the case of slightly more time on the clock giving a small chance of actually getting two more possessions in which 2 field goals could conceivably be kicked. That's got to weight the decision even more toward Going For Two.

PairTheBoard

[NickMPK]

I think the image thing may be more important than people are giving it credit for.

The fact of the matter is, the "go-for-two" play is so unorthodox that the coach always looks bad when his team misses, even when they come back to tie and win in overtime. People will question why they put themselves in such a desperate situation that they had to go for two a second time.

However, the coach will only look really good if the team makes the first conversion and later scores the second touchdown to win the game. If the team never scores the second touchdown (or the other team scored again to make it irrelevant), the play will just look like an oddity that had no real effect on a losing effort, and will be forgotten. Since it is more likely than now that the trailing team never actually gets into a position to win the game, the coach looks bad much more often than he looks good even if his team makes the conversion more than 50% of the time.