$10PLO, top set and 3rd flush, big pot

[DakotaKid]

Yeah, turn for me was one of those where I really wasn't sure what to do. At the time I figured 1/2 pot would be enough for a smaller flush to call me, and I'd fold to the pot bet. However, if they had a smaller flush I could get the same value on the river along with a free chance to outdraw the nut flush.

Come to think of it my checking behind might make UTG think they're low flush is good and they might fire the pot at me on a blank river. I think I'd have to call the river no matter what then.

[CaptDEEbo]

you are good 62 percent of the time here..

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
A quick calculation says (assuming I'm beat at this point) I'd need to have no more than $4.66 behind to call profitably to my boat. I'd probably go up to around $6 in practice given the remote chance I am ahead here, and I wouldn't want to advertise that I could fold easily to a scare card after being such an aggressor.

[/ QUOTE ]

A more appropriate calculation to make here is how often does UTG have to be making a move on you in order for you to call (since you'll be all-in).

Since you have 9 outs out of 42 cards if he has you beat, and he has at most 1 out out of 44 cards if you have him beat, the answer in this case works out to 1 time in 7.5.

So the question here is, does this guy make this play with a 9 high flush or less more than 1 time in 7.5?

Considering the stakes level, and your description of the player, I say no. So good fold.

If this was a significantly higher stakes level, you probably should have called since players there are much more likely to try to make a move on you.

Also, considering the nature of solid players at these stakes (i.e. nut-peddlers), I agree that a check behind is probably the better play because you're either drawing fairly thin or he's crushed. If your opponent is an ABC nut peddler then your bet is either going to make him fold (when he was probably drawing dead anyway) or make him push you off your hand (and thus lose your 20%, or so, equity in the pot). There are very, very few hands a nut peddler just calls you with here.

[DakotaKid]

[ QUOTE ]
you are good 62 percent of the time here..

[/ QUOTE ]

How exactly did you come to that number?

[Silent A]

That 62% number is awfully close to how often 3rd flush is good against 6 random opponents. Perhaps that's were he's getting it from (even though this is 6 handed and you're against a single opponent who is far from random).

[gergery]

Your turn bet was terrible. That is a standard check-behind vs. most opponents and a bet-small-then-call vs. bluffers/overagro monkeys.

you'll make more vs. hands you are ahead of and lose less with hands you are behind to.

-g

[DakotaKid]

[ QUOTE ]
That 62% number is awfully close to how often 3rd flush is good against 6 random opponents. Perhaps that's were he's getting it from (even though this is 6 handed and you're against a single opponent who is far from random).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, that enlightens things a bit. I can't imagine I'm anywhere near 62% here.

I can only wish my random hands are that strong [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[wazz]

That 62% is not quite worthless but if you're going to spout figures like that you need to inlclude some Bayes in your analysis.

[guilt_trip]

[ QUOTE ]
you are good 62 percent of the time here..

[/ QUOTE ]

Are these random hands? There isnt many players who will call here without the nut flush and the check raise all in on the turn. I think that this is an easy read and an easier fold in this situation IMO

[Ace upmy Slv]

I agree with check behind, then play the river accordingly. If you are going to bet the turn, I think you have to bet the pot. Then you know only a nut flush draw will be check raising you at that point (hopefully!). At that point figure out ur pot odds to your full house draw.

Based on what did happen on the turn, you have to play ur hand as if it is only a full house draw, period. Forget about the flush at that point and only call if the full house draw gives you the proper pot odds.