Player Discussion

[El Diablo]

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I guess you missed the part where I showed that using Mason's assumptions, we can mathematically prove that JJ has the higher EV. Thanks for coming out, though, chief.

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What if AQ reraises $150 instead of calling, now the action is on JJ. Use your rationale to compute the better hand and then you will see why your thinking is faulty.

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Feel free to do any math you would like to try and disprove what I've shown. Until you do that...

I'm sorry, but I have had enough. I'll let others elaborate.

[Mark1808]

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Feel free to do any math you would like to try and disprove what I've shown. Until you do that...

I'm sorry, but I have had enough. I'll let others elaborate.

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In the JJ example you said the $150 reraise was allready in the pot so it was not part of his negative EV. Well, what if AQ would reraise $150 instead of call, now according to your thinking AQ's $300 is already in the pot and not part of its negative EV and JJ has a decison to call $150. So AQ can only lose the 4% of the time J flops with A or Q because 67% of the time it will miss the flop and fold, and according to your previous logic the $300 was dead money and not a loss because AQ had already raised.

For the poster who said JJ had position please reread the original post by Mason and you will see that he said

What happen was that a player raised to $40 and then got reraised to $150. The original raiser then folded and showed AQ. His opponent then showed JJ.

JJ could have limped reraised or been in the blinds it is unclear. But the hypothesis is position or not JJ will make a 3/4 pot continuation bet no matter what. Meaning if he acts first or it is checked to him.

I noticed most dissenting post are filled with vitrolic language which is very unprofessional. If you disagree state your case, you are all giveig poker players a bad image! LOFL!

[Yeti]

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For the poster who said JJ had position please reread the original post by Mason and you will see that he said

What happen was that a player raised to $40 and then got reraised to $150. The original raiser then folded and showed AQ. His opponent then showed JJ.

JJ could have limped reraised or been in the blinds it is unclear.

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Here's a hint. In almost all cases the ace-queen will check the flop and the player holding the jacks will bet probably somewhere between half the pot to the whole pot.

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Try reading the whole thread, kid.

[Mark1808]

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For the poster who said JJ had position please reread the original post by Mason and you will see that he said

What happen was that a player raised to $40 and then got reraised to $150. The original raiser then folded and showed AQ. His opponent then showed JJ.

JJ could have limped reraised or been in the blinds it is unclear.

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Here's a hint. In almost all cases the ace-queen will check the flop and the player holding the jacks will bet probably somewhere between half the pot to the whole pot.

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Try reading the whole thread, kid.

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How does position change the results of this example. Thanks for the kid compliment! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[El Diablo]

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In the JJ example you said the $150 reraise was allready in the pot so it was not part of his negative EV.

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Wrong, I definitely account for that in the EV calc using Mason's assumptions, starting from the decision point Mason requested we start at (for your convenience, that is in this post).

26% of the time, JJ loses 150+225 = 375

When JJ loses, he loses the 150 he put in preflop plus the 225 he puts in postflop.

I did not read any further in your post.

As I said before, if you would like to provide some math to disprove what I showed, please feel free to make another attempt.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Just for fun, here are two Mason quotes in response to my previous posts that I think people have forgotten about:

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Now it is possible in many poker situations for more than one hand to have positive expectation due to other monies in the pot. But there isn't much of that here. However, that's not my point and I won't make any effort to defend it.

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Interesting....

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making that preflop call with AQ against a good player is not +EV and your analysis was not sufficiently rigorous to demonstrate to us that it is.

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I agree completely.

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Really?

[Mark1808]

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In the JJ example you said the $150 reraise was allready in the pot so it was not part of his negative EV.

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26% of the time, JJ loses 150+225 = 375

When JJ loses, he loses the 150 he put in preflop plus the 225 he puts in postflop.

I did not read any further in your post.

As I said before, if you would like to provide some math to disprove what I showed, please feel free to make another attempt.

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The probabilities are wrong.

67% chance of missing flop (44/50*43/49*42*47) = .67
so 33% chance of hit, but

P(J flop and A or Q) = 4%

So, 29% of flops are good for AQ

AQ EV = 38
JJ EV = 17

3% differance on $430 gain = additional $13 for AQ.

Have a nice day.

[amoeba]

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In the JJ example you said the $150 reraise was allready in the pot so it was not part of his negative EV.

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26% of the time, JJ loses 150+225 = 375

When JJ loses, he loses the 150 he put in preflop plus the 225 he puts in postflop.

I did not read any further in your post.

As I said before, if you would like to provide some math to disprove what I showed, please feel free to make another attempt.

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The probabilities are wrong.

67% chance of missing flop (44/50*43/49*42*47) = .67
so 33% chance of hit, but

P(J flop and A or Q) = 4%

So, 29% of flops are good for AQ

AQ EV = 38
JJ EV = 17

3% differance on $430 gain = additional $13 for AQ.

Have a nice day.

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you are missing the times that J hits the turn or river.

[El Diablo]

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In the JJ example you said the $150 reraise was allready in the pot so it was not part of his negative EV.

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26% of the time, JJ loses 150+225 = 375

When JJ loses, he loses the 150 he put in preflop plus the 225 he puts in postflop.

I did not read any further in your post.

As I said before, if you would like to provide some math to disprove what I showed, please feel free to make another attempt.

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The probabilities are wrong.

67% chance of missing flop (44/50*43/49*42*47) = .67
so 33% chance of hit, but

P(J flop and A or Q) = 4%

So, 29% of flops are good for AQ

AQ EV = 38
JJ EV = 17

3% differance on $430 gain = additional $13 for AQ.

Have a nice day.

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Mason explains above what probabilities to use given the assumptions he provided us. See Mason's "Analysis" post for an explanation.

I did not read the rest of your post.

Note that Mason himself has shown that the EV for AQ given his assumptions is 15 and he also agreed w/ me elsewhere in the thread that the EV of JJ is 40.

Again, thanks for trying.

[fyodor]

Ok, I never finished high school and I suck at no limit (as well as several other forms of poker) but I am prepared to elaborate on Mason's behalf.

After JJ's raise, AQs needs to call $110
If he instead folds JJ takes the pot of $205 which includes his $150 bet

Using numbers from Mason and agreed upon by El Diablo

67% of the time AQs loses $110 (his original $40 is dead money)
26% of the time AQs wins $430 (210 + 225 continuation bet)
7% of the time AQs loses $335 (110 + 225 call of cont. bet)

EV = $14.65

67% of the time JJ wins $110 (we ignore the rest which he would have won anyhow had AQs folded)
26% of the time JJ loses $375 (150 + 225)
7% of the time JJ wins $335 (110 + 225 again ignoring anything in the pot before AQs called the reraise)

EV = 40c

This is what Mason is trying to say. Whether you like the way he ignores the original $55 in the pot when JJ puts in the reraise or not, tough nuts. That's the way he couched the problem in his head.

Any attempt at refuting my numbers will be ignored.
I'm done with this thread.