Player Discussion

[amoeba]

Mason, correct me if I'm wrong but I don't understand how we can dictate such a specific strategy for AQ which relies on pretty much knowing our opponent has JJ (since we are check calling on KQX flops) while the player with JJ has to autobet all flops. seems rather one sided.

I think the question would be better phrased as, if we know reraiser will only reraise with JJ and will autobet the flop regardless of what flops, calling the reraise with AQ is +ev.

[El Diablo]

Mason,

You said:

The question is regardless as to whether it is right or wrong to call the raise, if you do go ahead and call it, which hand would you now rather have.

Therefore, you are wrong here regarding the point from which to determine the EV. I will let others elaborate. Hopefully David and Ed are up to the task.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Masked Man:

Even though I said I wasn't going to, I just went back and looked at this post.

[ QUOTE ]
67% of the time, AQ loses 150
26% of the time, AQ wins 165+225 = 390
7% of the time, AQ loses 150+225 = 375
= -100 + 101 - 26 = -25


[/ QUOTE ]

No. Because his alternative is to fold and forfeit his original $40. So he does not lose $150 67 percent of the time. He only loses $110 67 percent of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
67% of the time, JJ wins 165
26% of the time, JJ loses 150+225 = 375
7% of the time, JJ wins 165+225 = 390
= 110 - 98 + 27 = +39


[/ QUOTE ]

Versus winning $55 (assuming everyone else folds) 100 percent of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, as the question is framed in terms of all the pre-flop already having happened, we should really consider the 315 in the middle dead money

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The question is framed at the point in time where Player A who holds the ace-queen suited has the option to call the raise to $150. Only if he calls this raise will there be $315 in the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
67% of the time, AQ makes 0.
26% of the time, AQ wins 315+225 = 540
7% of the time, AQ loses 225.
= 0 + 140 - 16 = 124

67% of the time, JJ wins 315.
26% of the time, JJ loses 225
7% of the time, JJ wins 315+225 = 540
= 211 - 58 + 38 = 191


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not solving Player A's expectation to call the $110 raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I think the situation is far worse than this, as AQ will often pay off far more on A or Q flops and will get stacked by JJ far more than JJ gets stacked by AQ. And other considerations like JJ blowing AQ off best hand more than AQ blows JJ off best hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

This may be the case for most typical players. But so what. That doesn't mean that other strategies aren't available which will do far better than this.

Best wishes,
Mason

[El Diablo]

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to know which hand in general is better before the flop, then I agree that the jacks is preferred.


[/ QUOTE ]

We know that, of course.

[ QUOTE ]
The question is regardless as to whether it is right or wrong to call the raise, if you do go ahead and call it, which hand would you now rather have.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the question you asked. I proved that if you do go ahead and call the raise, you should now rather have JJ if you prefer the hand that makes you the most money. I will let others elaborate as to why.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Masked Man:

I guess that's the problem you have had. That statement you cite certainly isn't in my original post.

What I mean is:

1. You go ahead and call
2. What is your expectation at the point in time that you make the call of the $110 raise to $150.

Best wishes,
Mason

[amoeba]

ithe (autobet flop by player B) part of the problem is allowing AQ to have a +ev call of the preflop reraise.

what it comes down to is that AQ has a strategy which is dependent on what flops but JJ does not, thus the advantage lies with AQ. it has nothing to do with the fact that AQ is the better hand.

in fact, one should argue that player b is not employing an optimal strategy as he is betting all flops. and that a more optimal flop strategy (something perhaps along the lines of only betting the flop if no aces present) would render player A's preflop call of the reraise -ev.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi amoeba:

One of my other posts explains why the problem is simplified. In a nut shell, computing the expectation equation for the specific problem is probably too complex so I didn't even attempt it. But sometimes you can compute an expectation for a simpler problem and then draw reasonable inferences about the more complex problem. This is a very important statistical idea and is partly why I have spent so much time in this thread.

It is a very good way to "solve" some poker problems. But it is also a very bad way to solve some others since the simple model may not be close enough to reality to give you viable information.

By the way, many years ago a man named Copernicus did something similar.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

[ QUOTE ]
The question is regardless as to whether it is right or wrong to call the raise, if you do go ahead and call it, which hand would you now rather have.


[/ QUOTE ]

I just addressed this in another post. You still need to compare that call to the option of folding. That should be clear from the problem that I originally posted. At least I thought it was.

The purpose of this statement was to counter those who were saying something like: "If you raise with ace-queen and get reraised, it's wrong to call."

best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi amoeba:

I believe that most players will make a "continuation bet" as Dan Harrington has called it. If that's not the case, then my analysis does not do a good job of representing reality and should be ignored.

best wishes,
Mason

[amoeba]

hi mason,

i don't know if you have time but if you could, read one of my posts later on in this thread.

I think the premise is skewed towards AQ here. it is a very simple math problem if we assume JJ is betting any flop. AQ is taking a strategy which is dependent on what flops but JJ is not which lies at the heart of the problem.

the conclusion is not that AQ is the better hand but rather the player with JJ is not playing them optimally if he autobets the flop.

it is a rather simple math problem if we assume that JJ will autobet any flop and will bet exactly that much but it does nothing to prove that AQ is the better hand.