Player Discussion

[FoxwoodsFiend]

Do we really need 200+ replies to this thread? Clearly Mason is not making his point well and if he were anybody else this thread would have ended after 10 replies. LET TI DIE.

[Mark1808]

[ QUOTE ]
Your response is so off-base I won't even bother to actually address it. Here's a hint: Figure out what the question that is being posed asks (hint 2: both Mason and I have stated what this question is), since you don't even have that right.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a lot of wiggle room in answering the original question as to what hand is better AQ or JJ? It depends at what point in time you are analyzing the problem at and in this case it is right as JJ made it $150 to go. So, as far as I am concerned the question is would you rather be making it $150 to go as JJ or calling $110 as AQ? The answer is based on expected moves and EV it turns out to be AQ.

I do not care what you are Mason think the question is, this is my interpretation based on his original post. If the $110 call versus the $150 reraise were not important considerations why not just ask what hand is better AQ or JJ and speculate on what the preflop action should be? Because the preflop action was spelled out it must be made part of the comparison.

What if we said JJ raised $40 and AQ mucked, what hand is better? You would have a differant answer. In fact JJ would be better EV = 10 versus -11 for AQ!

So the question is not whether AQ is better than JJ, it is whether AQ is better than JJ given the action. So you see, it really "depends". For a bunch of so called poker pros who sit around answering newbies posts with "it depends" I am suprised you don't get this!

[El Diablo]

[ QUOTE ]
Do we really need 200+ replies to this thread? Clearly Mason is not making his point well and if he were anybody else this thread would have ended after 10 replies. LET TI DIE.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mason and David hold authors who post here to a higher standard than regular forum members. I don't find it unreasonable that the claims they make regarding poker strategy should also be held to a higher standard and when there is widespread disagreement about the positions they take, it is reasonable to expect them to back these positions up with EV calculations or other math/logic as appropriate.

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
Do we really need 200+ replies to this thread? Clearly Mason is not making his point well and if he were anybody else this thread would have ended after 10 replies. LET TI DIE.

[/ QUOTE ]
that's the thing, FWF: mason is NOT "anybody else." he's the owner of this site and publisher of the most "authoritative" books on poker theory. what i've been concerned with and trying to emphasize is that there is a credibility issue at stake.

as for letting it die, it's not like the thread is being bumped just by random ppl throwing in their less-than-2-cents (such as me); the thread is hosting an ongoing debate between mason and diablo, replete with ev calcs (albeit ignored by one party).

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Mark:

[ QUOTE ]
We are looking at the point in time that JJ has made it $150; who would you rather be the J making it $150 or the AQ calling $110?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly right and may be a point that is confusing many. If Player A, who holds the ace-queen suited, chooses to fold, his expectation from that point on zero. If he chooses to play, and perhaps follows the strategy I outlined and it gives him a positive expectation from that point on, then that positive expectation must come from somewhere. In this case it can only come from Player B who holds the jacks. Thus Player B's expectation is now negative from that point on.

Also, I agree that the probabilities are off a little. But as stated this was done deliberately to account for possible rare scenarios which might be detrimental to Player A. (Good statisticians like to error on the conservative side.)

[ QUOTE ]
EV JJ = .67(165) + .29(-370) + .04(390) = 18


[/ QUOTE ]

No. If Player A folds his ace-queen suited (as we all agree he should) Player B wins $55. Thus the expectation for Player B from that point on is not what you show.

I do agree that against many players if Player A hits the flop and calls, then it goes check-check on the turn, he will have a value bet on the river. So A's expectation is sometimes even higher. But that scenario becomes much more complex to model and I felt my point could be shown with much less complexity.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Masked Man:

Are you are on side or your side? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Masked Man:

I agree, and I did do that. But sometimes, because of concerns running our publishing business things don't get done as quickly as they should, and right now we have some major printing problems which are being corrected but are taking up a lot of time.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Mark:

I agree with most of what you say except for this one point (which might be type-o on your part):

[ QUOTE ]
What if we said JJ raised $40 and AQ mucked, what hand is better? You would have a differant answer. In fact JJ would be better EV = 10 versus -11 for AQ!


[/ QUOTE ]

If the ace-queen folds then his expectation is zero since he didn't play the hand.

Best wishes,
Mason

[amoeba]

so I asssume player A with AQ would check call on KQx flops?

this problem seems overly simplified.

player B only needs to increase preflop reraise amount and/or decrease flop autobet amount to make this be -EV for player A.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Masked Man:

According to my analysis, if Player A chooses to call the $110 raise (to $150) there are strategies available to him where he shows a profit relative to folding after he has already put his initial $40 in the pot. That means since he just happens to be against precisely a pair of jacks he wants to keep playing as opposed to folding where he forfeits his original $40 investment.

If you buy my analysis as being reasonably good, this statement has to mean that you would prefer the ace-queen suited at precisely this point in time in precisely this situation. That's as clear as I can make it.

If you want to know which hand in general is better before the flop, then I agree that the jacks is preferred.

Best wishes,
Mason