$100NL Triple barrelled whiffed nfd

[Hince]

I pulled this move yesterday and it worked out for me, but I think it is a bad play. After the turn bet, you don't leave yourself enough to bluff him off anything that would call the turn except a missed flush.

[Jigsaws]

I don't hate triple barreling sometimes, but both turn and river were mostly blanks (except for 68). I'd just check the turn, FWIW. OOP I'm more likely to double barrel/block the turn with a flush draw.

[True]

basically, if he folded, you probably had the best hand anyway.

True

[PBJaxx]

[ QUOTE ]
basically, if he folded, you probably had the best hand anyway.

True

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key to this hand. If villain was purely on a draw too, you win this at showdown anyway with Ace-high. You might get a fold from TT or JJ, but other than that what are you hoping to fold? I really don't think a queen folds here. If the river were a king or an ace (if you didn't have it), I would consider this play if I had a read. I think you need a scare card to make this play profitable. In this spot, I think the only hands that fold here, you already have beat.

-Jaxx

[matrix]

recently I have been checking behind here only to lose to hands like K2d K7d or some other hand that pairs the river but isn't calling a push, so I pushed here as I don't want that to happen.

Villain folds and then claims in chat that he can't fold open ednders - which puts him squarely on JT.

I think most often I'm ahead anyway if he folds but how often does villain have something like K2d and my river bet wins an otherwise lost pot vs the times he has a Q and obv isn't folding.

[allaboutmyfetti]

I can't think of what hands call 2 streets but fold the river ... except for maybe a worse flush draw

[ChipStorm]

Villain could be drawing with either [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s or JT.

matrix, I've had that same experience of checking the river and losing to a better busted hand, so as played, I genuflect to fim and bet the river too.

But I would check the turn, and maybe even the flop. As NLHETAP says, tend to semibluff more when your draw is not to the nuts, than when it is. You have a nut draw, and you're being offered free cards on both the flop and turn. And unlikely as it may be, if any overflushing is going down this hand, you're going to be on the happy end of it.

So against the strong possibility that villain may be calling down with a better hand than we have, and the small chance that we have a draw to stackage, I definitely check the turn; and depending on how the table is playing, maybe even the flop.

[PBJaxx]

[ QUOTE ]
recently I have been checking behind here only to lose to hands like K2d K7d or some other hand that pairs the river but isn't calling a push, so I pushed here as I don't want that to happen.

Villain folds and then claims in chat that he can't fold open ednders - which puts him squarely on JT.

I think most often I'm ahead anyway if he folds but how often does villain have something like K2d and my river bet wins an otherwise lost pot vs the times he has a Q and obv isn't folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point. I don't have any mathematical basis for this, but I believe that villain having a queen is more likely than villain catching a piece on the river. The bet doesn't have to work everytime to be profitable, though. I still believe checking behind is best.

-Jaxx