Player Discussion

[Matt Flynn]

[ QUOTE ]
Matt,

Note that in Mason's followup post he postulates the following:

AQs is out of position having called a reraise. Jacks are in position having put in the re-raise preflop.

Given that scenario, he would rather be the AQs post-flop.

I am looking forward to Mason's explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]


Picking AQs without stack-size clarification and statement of major restrictions? Interesting.

[kagame]

wow

groupthink at work?

[Mark1808]

Of course AQ is better than JJ, its a simple EV calculation.

2/3 of the time you miss the flop and you are done. EV = 2/3 * -150 = -100

1/3 of the time you hit the flop and JJ bets out $225 on average (between 1/2 and full pot) and you raise. Does he fold 100% of the time? Lets simplify things and say he does, then EV = 1/3 * ($150 + $225) = 125.

So, in this example AQ has an EV of plus 25.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course AQ is better than JJ, its a simple EV calculation.

2/3 of the time you miss the flop and you are done. EV = 2/3 * -150 = -100

1/3 of the time you hit the flop and JJ bets out $225 on average (between 1/2 and full pot) and you raise. Does he fold 100% of the time? Lets simplify things and say he does, then EV = 1/3 * ($150 + $225) = 125.

So, in this example AQ has an EV of plus 25.

[/ QUOTE ]

if your example is true, why do I even need AQ?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Hmm...you might be neglecting AJx flops, QJx flops, and AQx flops. I wonder how those will work out for AQ...

[RikaKazak]

Still JJ

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Jeff:

I usually don't and consider it bad form. But sometimes I will go ahead and answer a question because somehow the situation develops where I feel it is just too impolite not to.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Matt:

The player with the jacks acted last.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Mark:

In my limited no limit experience, it doesn't work this way. What will happen is that if no ace or queen (or other great hand) comes, the ace-queen will fold to the jacks bet.

If an ace comes, or a queen with no king, the player with the ace-queen will call the bet and then there will frequently be no bet on fourth street. If there is another bet on fourth street, then it becomes very tough as to what the ace-queen will do -- I'm talking about typical players, not what an expert would do.

So your calculation is a little too simplistic, and it does not take into account what happens if the check raise is called or reraised. (Note: When you're playing, and you make this checkraise, there's a good chance you don't have the best hand and now it can be very expensive in no limit.)

By the way, in a recent conversation with Dan Harrington, he told me about a play he had against a young girl in a TV tournament that I think goes on the Game Show Network. His opponent made a bet in a spot and Dan folded a fairly good hand. His thinking was that she didn't have the knowledge to make a "continuation bet" in this spot, so her hand must be real and thus better than his. After the show she told him that she never would have bet there if it wasn't for the fact that she had just read his book.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Masked man:

That's the key. While you don't know that he has jacks, in reality that's exactly what he has, and should play the hand accordingly. Also, when the ace-queen calls the reraise, the player with jacks will be afraid that he is against a hand better than ace-queen -- of course this can be very player dependent.

best wishes,
Mason