Player Discussion

[Mark1808]

Of course AQ is better than JJ, its a simple EV calculation.

2/3 of the time you miss the flop and you are done. EV = 2/3 * -150 = -100

1/3 of the time you hit the flop and JJ bets out $225 on average (between 1/2 and full pot) and you raise. Does he fold 100% of the time? Lets simplify things and say he does, then EV = 1/3 * ($150 + $225) = 125.

So, in this example AQ has an EV of plus 25.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course AQ is better than JJ, its a simple EV calculation.

2/3 of the time you miss the flop and you are done. EV = 2/3 * -150 = -100

1/3 of the time you hit the flop and JJ bets out $225 on average (between 1/2 and full pot) and you raise. Does he fold 100% of the time? Lets simplify things and say he does, then EV = 1/3 * ($150 + $225) = 125.

So, in this example AQ has an EV of plus 25.

[/ QUOTE ]

if your example is true, why do I even need AQ?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Hmm...you might be neglecting AJx flops, QJx flops, and AQx flops. I wonder how those will work out for AQ...

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Mark:

In my limited no limit experience, it doesn't work this way. What will happen is that if no ace or queen (or other great hand) comes, the ace-queen will fold to the jacks bet.

If an ace comes, or a queen with no king, the player with the ace-queen will call the bet and then there will frequently be no bet on fourth street. If there is another bet on fourth street, then it becomes very tough as to what the ace-queen will do -- I'm talking about typical players, not what an expert would do.

So your calculation is a little too simplistic, and it does not take into account what happens if the check raise is called or reraised. (Note: When you're playing, and you make this checkraise, there's a good chance you don't have the best hand and now it can be very expensive in no limit.)

By the way, in a recent conversation with Dan Harrington, he told me about a play he had against a young girl in a TV tournament that I think goes on the Game Show Network. His opponent made a bet in a spot and Dan folded a fairly good hand. His thinking was that she didn't have the knowledge to make a "continuation bet" in this spot, so her hand must be real and thus better than his. After the show she told him that she never would have bet there if it wasn't for the fact that she had just read his book.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mark1808]

I do agree I offered a very simple model and the call on the flop rather than a raise is probably typical, but the simplified model captures 95% of what would happen here. Obviously very rarely AJ or QJ could hit the flop and this takes away some expected value but their might be more money to be extracted from JJ when an A or Q flops and their is action on the turn and river, which more than makes up for the AJ or QJ situations.

I would never call the preflop reraise with AQ either, but the example shows the value to be gained on certain hands against a player who will always make a continuation bet.

[El Diablo]

[ QUOTE ]
His thinking was that she didn't have the knowledge to make a "continuation bet" in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Mason,

This is completely incorrect thinking with respect to the vast majority of no-limit games I have played across a variety of limits (spanning from 1-2 to 50-100) and both cash and tourney games over the last couple of years. The vast majority of players almost automatically fire continuation bets from any position once they have raised preflop.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Masked Man:

I may not have the situation correct that Dan described for the hand> But his statement that he didn't think she was capable of making the bet she made was accurate.

Best wishes,
Mason

[El Diablo]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Masked Man:

I may not have the situation correct that Dan described for the hand> But his statement that he didn't think she was capable of making the bet she made was accurate.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure that Dan accurately stated what he thought!

[El Diablo]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Mark:

In my limited no limit experience, it doesn't work this way. What will happen is that if no ace or queen (or other great hand) comes, the ace-queen will fold to the jacks bet.

If an ace comes, or a queen with no king, the player with the ace-queen will call the bet and then there will frequently be no bet on fourth street. If there is another bet on fourth street, then it becomes very tough as to what the ace-queen will do -- I'm talking about typical players, not what an expert would do.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, Mason, I am going to take a stab at what I think you might be getting at.

A or Q flops x% of the time. Pot size = p. [In checking this post, I realize that p includes blinds too, and I'm sure there are other errors of sloppiness in what I write below, but all my general thoughts still hold, so I'm not going to bother correcting this stuff]

You postulate that you will be playing bad, straightforward players who will x% of the time w/ AQ gain (.5p + .75p)(x%). [Because they check-call the flop and that is it for the betting]

(1-x)% of the time they will check-fold and lose (1-x%)(.5p).

Not surprisingly, Mason, your description of how the hand will be played reminds me of how limit players play NL - typically far worse than even relatively inexperienced low-limit NL players.

It's not quite that easy, though.

Even against straightforward bad players who play as you stated, this does not consider a few scenarios.

The AQ player, if he check-calls and checks as you suggest he will, will always give the Jacks two shots to hit his Jack.

Sometimes the flop will contain an A or Q AND a Jack, and AQ will call.

Sometimes the flop will have a flush draw and AQ will check-call.

There are multiple scenarios besides "A or Q on flop, no J" where AQ will put money in.

Also, sometimes the flop will be KQ and AQ will fold to the continuation bet.

Even worse, it is much more common that AQ will get stacked by JJ than the reverse.

As AQs starts facing better and better players holding the Jacks, the chances of getting stacked increase as well as the chances of getting blown off the better hand.

Given these considerations (and numerous others I didn't list), it seems very hard for me to come up with reasons for preferring AQs given the situation you described.

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
Not surprisingly, Mason, your description of how the hand will be played reminds me of how limit players play NL - typically far worse than even relatively inexperienced low-limit NL players.

[/ QUOTE ]
if mason can make such a fundamental mistake as this one, a mistake that reminds you of the kind made specifically by players transitioning from limit to no-limit, then that doesn't bode well for two other 2+2 authors known as limit players writing a book on no-limit.

i don't presume to know or disparage sklansky's and miller's abilities as nl players, but i have a simple question: wouldn't RAY ZEE writing the nl cash games book make a lot more sense??