bankroll concepts - risk of ruin

[ryanj247]

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In that case, your risk of ruin never was 1%, because you never planned to play without adjustment all the way to ruin. But the number gave you the confidence to ignore bankroll for a while. Similarly, the 25% wasn’t real either, it was just an alarm signal to say, “start worrying about your bankroll.” You then adjusted your play to reduce the risk of ruin to an acceptable level again.


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thanks for the reply. that really helped to clarify things for me.

one question: is 25% a reasonable point to "start worrying about your bankroll"? i wasn't sure if you were using that number as a sort of established standard, or just threw it out there.

the basic dilemma for me is this: once i decide on a reasonable size bankroll for the game i intend to play, at what point should i *really* be concerned that i'm no longer properly bankrolled for that game if i start off in the new game with a downswing.

just as an example: when i run my BR calculation for 10/20, given my expected WR and SD I find that i should have a $5300 BR for 10/20 @ 1% RoR. i wouldn't hit the 25% RoR mark until i was down to $1600. if i'm down $2500-3000 in the first few weeks, should i still feel comfortable playing as if my RoR was zero?