Lee Jones Flawed Thinking

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3. Even if you believed your opponent played as well as you and even if you thought he probably played approximately game theory strategy, you should still fold a close decision. Because as long as you think there is a decent chance that he is actually significantly tighter than expected, (in the situation given, remember, this is only the second hand of the head up match) your overall EV is negative if you make this call. Folding can only be a small error. Calling might be a big one.

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WHAT? This 'point' only has relevance if:
a.) We think our opponent is as good as us.
b.) We think our opponent uses good game theory.
c.) We think our opponent is "significantly tighter than expected"

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No, no, no, no that's not his point. His point is that thee's at least some chance that your judgment about the particular player is wrong.


a.) We think our opponent is as good as us.
b.) We think our opponent uses good game theory.
c.) Most players play significantly tighter than this though. There is at least some chance that the assesment about the opponent is wrong i.e. there is an X% chance the beliefs that the opponent being as good as we are and making their plays using sound game theory analysis is wrong.

Therefore since our assessment of our opponent may be wrong it makes more sense to fold when the decision is close if there was a 100% chance our assesment is right.