KTs , Insta call on river with 1 pair

[Dumle]

If I intend to call that river bet, I would definately bet the turn.

Dumle

[True]

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If I intend to call that river bet, I would definately bet the turn.

Dumle

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.

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[DaveRockNo20]

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If I intend to call that river bet, I would definately bet the turn.

Dumle

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.

True

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yup

[Dumle]

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.


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You misunderstood me. I am only putting in money on one street here and I prefer to do that on turn, rather than river.

Dumle

[Tickner]

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.


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You misunderstood me. I am only putting in money on one street here and I prefer to do that on turn, rather than river.

Dumle

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He understands this but he (and I for that matter) think you are putting it in on the wrong street.

[True]

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.


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You misunderstood me. I am only putting in money on one street here and I prefer to do that on turn, rather than river.

Dumle

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He understands this but he (and I for that matter) think you are putting it in on the wrong street.

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If we bet the turn and a heart comes on the river, we lose money....

If villain would bluff the river and also call a bet lighter on the river because no heart came down and he doesn't have to worry about a flush coming in and also thinks we may be bluffing then checking the turn is best.

The more passive and stupid the opponent is requires more of a rethink into where we should be betting.

For instance :

Loose / Passive < --------------------- > Aggressive
Bet Turn < --------------------- > Bet river

The relationship between these 2 is almost directly proportional.

True

[Dumle]

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If we bet the turn and a heart comes on the river, we lose money....


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Not true, if he didn't have the odds to call, we gain.

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If villain would bluff the river and also call a bet lighter on the river because no heart came down and he doesn't have to worry about a flush coming in and also thinks we may be bluffing then checking the turn is best.


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I don't see many weaker hands calling this flop, that doesn't contain a heart. And if he indeed has a heart, it is imperative to bet turn.

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For instance :

Loose / Passive < --------------------- > Aggressive
Bet Turn < --------------------- > Bet river

The relationship between these 2 is almost directly proportional.


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I agree, but there are more things to consider when deciding whether to bet turn or river, such as the texture of the board, what you hold, etc. Plus, OP didn't give us a read on the opponent so this is not really relevant.

Dumle

[True]

Dumle, you are completely under-estimating the bluffing frequency or value bet frequency of a weaker hand on this river in my honest opinion.

You can argue that betting the turn is imperitive, however there are a couple of flaws in your extrapolation of his ranges.

Your range is : Naked Draws = 20% equity, Draws + made hands = 30% equity, Made hands that beat us = ~95% equity.

If villain never c/r the turn as a bluff and never bets the river with a worse hand, then as long as Naked Draws and Weaker Made hands + draws = ~2x Stronger made hands then your analysis is correct.

I however think there is some merit to dismantling this range slightly, also to disagree with the fact that he doesn't c/r with a weaker hand... Your definition of this player puts him squarely on the diagram where we should check the turn, however a more unknown player has more erratic tendencies. The diagram is slightly skewed to show that against an unknown player we should favour or at least give thought to the fact that there would be merit in waiting to the river. Not everyone would release middle pair here on the flop, not everyone would release a gutshot. "We may have Ah-x on the river" and Villain may try and bluff his way to the pot, we have played this hand in similar fashion to that of Ah-x and it could easily be perceived to Villain that we would fold this.

A lot of players will bluff this river given this situation, and there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of. Betting the turn also knocks out weak flush draws, weaker made hands that would have invested money in the river in the form of a c/c or a bluff which we can capitalise on.

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[Dumle]

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He understands this but he (and I for that matter) think you are putting it in on the wrong street.

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If you intend to call a river bet, which I am not sure you should, there's so many reason for betting this turn instead. The times you have him beat and he doesn't improve you will more than likely get to showdown anyway, so getting to showdown is not really an issue here.

If he has the ace of hearts, you really should charge him for that. If he calls, he is making a mistake. If he folds, well that's good also, much better than giving him a free card. The key here is that you will not make up for lost money on the turn on the river, since he will not bluff often enough, or big enough, with missed draws.

You can safely fold to a check-raise. If he is on a draw, he will more than likely push it on the flop, so a check-raise here means most of the time a real hand.

That's some of them, I can probably come up with a couple of more if I get some time.

Dumle

[banana182]

I agree with Dumle here. It's not really about what decision you make on the river. It's about making him/her pay to see the river. For him/her to call on the turn is a mistake at that point.