How many young players out there actually make it???

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
if its possible that variance can make you never win a hand again for the rest of your life, then its clearly possible that variance can hinder your chances at making it as a pro. the op asked how likely it is to "make it" starting out with $200. that isn't much of a bankroll for any limits and there is likely a stronger then average chance that he will go broke. i appreciate you shedding some insight on the matter however. i try to listen intently to the people who are smarter then me.

[/ QUOTE ]

he asked if variance is so great that it's impossible to make it. the answer is no. if you don't have the potential to make it, variance is not the reason. it's not even one of the contributing reasons. yes, variance can screw you in some cases if you're very unlucky. that doesn't mean that variance makes it impossible to make it.

the OP's post implies that variance could be some kind of evil thing that makes good players lose in the long run. it's just plain wrong.

i won't bother to try to explain this any further, you're probably smart enough to understand it and are just being difficult because you're tstonembd.

also, you should look up the difference between "than" and "then".

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't believe me? Think about all the mid stakes players you know who are capable of playing much higher but due to poor decision making aren't. Probably around half will say "running bad when taking shots." This always makes me laugh, especially when I know they just spent a ton of money on other stuff they didn't need. The other half can usually admit their own bankroll management inefficencies.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you said mid stakes, but wanna know why I'm not playing 300/600 yet?

You guessed it: running bad when taking shots.

It happens. Easy enough to go up to 300/600, play an hour, lose $20,000 because you're playing 5 handed and winning 5% of pots and 25% at showdown, and there goes reasonable grinding at 100/200 and similar limits. Do that a few times and it grows tiresome and you begin to question whether it's even worth it trying to continue to move higher.

I'm totally comfortable in $150/300. Make it 300/600 though and I can notice the elevation. I suppose it's no different for someone playing 15/30 and taking their 30/60 shots.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
bah, what's w/ the chuck norris hating. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously: The main export of chuck noris is pain.

Barron

[Sponger.]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you said mid stakes, but wanna know why I'm not playing 300/600 yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you play 2,000 hands of poker a month and don't have a large enough roll to be comfortable at those stakes?

[BusterAMG]

Everyone seems to be depositing $50 or $100 - how about starting with $0 and playing freerolls? That way you NEVER have to quit poker if you lose.

Though I consider myself in the lucky group for winning an 8k first place MTT after only 4 months experience at 16, this simply gave me more freedom to learn faster - but at no point was ANY of my personal money ever threatened by poker, and thus I could have played forever until I got better.

[James282]

tongni, you are excessively frugal. Sitting around with hundreds of thousands in online poker accounts and living in a "barely furnished place for $275 a month" is way sillier than poker players who take time to invest in stocks. You could easily have a much higher quality of life for the cost of a few pots a month. You could live in a decent place on rakeback alone in all likelihood. That you choose not to is fine, but don't go judging people who make different decisions than you. I know plenty of guys who increased their quality of life responsibly while building their bankroll. Not going out to parties with your friends because you wanted to save 10 bucks makes you a nit that nobody would want to be friends with - not a smart bankroll manager. Eating ramen noodles for your meals instead of spending a few bucks on regular food will take a much bigger toll on you long term than the additional utility of a few hundred bucks a month will help you. Get over yourself. You took one of many possible paths to being a successful poker player - there are many other ways to do it, ways that are in my opinion much more fun and just as sensible.
-James

[wiseheart]

I agree, Bankroll management is the key.

I started play freerolls after watching some
poker over Christmas (the one b4 last). Enjoyed
it, even won some $ on JetSet. Got my bro to
send me $5 on P*s, got down to .25 cents and
then got lucky and came back up. Started playing
10 and 20 MTT tourneys. Won 1st in a couple and
was up to around $2200. Thought I was a big shot
so I bought into the 30/60 Omaha 8 game and was
down to $100 in a few days. Stopped playing ring
games and MTTs and went to low limit SNGs. Now,
I can withdraw about $100 every month. Not making
it by any means, but not doing bad for 15 hours/week.
Hopefully, the win rate will continue to increase w/ time.

Forgot to mention, Im 20.

[4thstreetpete]

[ QUOTE ]
tongni, you are excessively frugal. Sitting around with hundreds of thousands in online poker accounts and living in a "barely furnished place for $275 a month" is way sillier than poker players who take time to invest in stocks. You could easily have a much higher quality of life for the cost of a few pots a month. You could live in a decent place on rakeback alone in all likelihood. That you choose not to is fine, but don't go judging people who make different decisions than you. I know plenty of guys who increased their quality of life responsibly while building their bankroll. Not going out to parties with your friends because you wanted to save 10 bucks makes you a nit that nobody would want to be friends with - not a smart bankroll manager. Eating ramen noodles for your meals instead of spending a few bucks on regular food will take a much bigger toll on you long term than the additional utility of a few hundred bucks a month will help you. Get over yourself. You took one of many possible paths to being a successful poker player - there are many other ways to do it, ways that are in my opinion much more fun and just as sensible.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

excellent post and my sentiments exactly. You should know by now though not to take tongni seriously as most of his advice has been total garbage.

[tongni]

This was back when I was playing 3/6 and 5/10. Of course now I eat out for every meal and go out on most weekends, but when you're making not a ton of money, it's a real slippery slope and it's better not to tear through a large portion of your bankroll for lifestyle expenses.

Of course now if I wanted to move out of my place or get some furniture, I would in a heartbeat. It's not really about saving money any more but rather a lifestyle. I only included it just to say that the habits which allowed me to move up in limits extremely quickly have stuck with me.


[ QUOTE ]
I know plenty of guys who increased their quality of life responsibly while building their bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, me too. I know about 4 times as many people who increased their quality of life while blowing their bankroll. Maybe you live in some sort of pokertopia where everyone wins 2 bb/100 and nobody ever runs bad, but people usually overestimate their skill and underestimate the effects of variance. Run at 3bb/100 for 10k hands at a new limit and it's real hard to remember what losing is like.

[ QUOTE ]
ways that are in my opinion much more fun and just as sensible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Noted.

[tongni]

[ QUOTE ]
excellent post and my sentiments exactly. You should know by now though not to take tongni seriously as most of his advice has been total garbage.


[/ QUOTE ]

Kill yourself, please. That's the best advice I have given in this thread so far.