how beatable

[VBCurtis]

[ QUOTE ]
Good place to ask this:

5/10, I play average-to-well.

5% up to $10 cap rake.

Average competition is 6 donkeys, 2 VERY weak tights, and 1 other solid player. This would be a conservative estimate aswell.

Average pot is ~$100.

Beatable? I tentatively say yes, but would like some expert confirmation.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case, the rake is essentially uncapped, so avg pot determines average rake. If the pot avg's $100, rake is around $5/hand. You mention no jackpot drop, and tipping $1/hand is a reasonable assumption-- $6/hand in costs. At a typically soft 5/10 game, we can use similar numbers to above- a good but not expert player could make 8BB/100 before rake. The rake in this case is under 5 BB/100, leaving you 1 BB/hr ($10) as potential profit. This game is much easier to beat, since you only need 5 BB/100 pre-rake to be a breakeven player. Note that is avg pot is $120, you pay $7/hand, and winrate may not go up (the extra aggression can become hard to deal with, and isn't necessarily all dead money); this could lead to winrate dropping to $3/hr range.

When every bet that goes in is raked, super-thin value bets lose their value, because the house takes 5% of both the bet and the call-- you bet $10 to win $19. This can make lots of what would be good decisions online -EV in your game.

If you play online, I suggest you use 25/50 cent full ring as a gauge for typical 6/12 or under live games. I play the 25 stakes to get practice extracting the most out of that level of player, and also use my winrates (smallish sample, 12k hands) to guide my calculations above. I believe 25-50 is beatable for 9BB/100 before rake, while the game is generally tighter than my local 4/8; this is where I get my estimates for 9-12BB/100 for 4/8 and lower. Your 5/10 game sounds like my usual conditions.
-Curtis

[Yossarian147]

[ QUOTE ]

If you play online, I suggest you use 25/50 cent full ring as a gauge for typical 6/12 or under live games. I play the 25 stakes to get practice extracting the most out of that level of player, and also use my winrates (smallish sample, 12k hands) to guide my calculations above. I believe 25-50 is beatable for 9BB/100 before rake, while the game is generally tighter than my local 4/8; this is where I get my estimates for 9-12BB/100 for 4/8 and lower. Your 5/10 game sounds like my usual conditions.
-Curtis

[/ QUOTE ]

9bb/100, you must be one of the greatest poker players of all time.

[Kaeser]

[ QUOTE ]

9bb/100, you must be one of the greatest poker players of all time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this Yossarian. First you make a sarcastic comment about a 9bb/100 figure. Then in your very next post you state that a 4/8 game can be beaten for 1.5bb/hour.

1.5bb/hour=4.5bb/100 if the dealers are fast. Factor the rake into that and you're looking at right around 9bb/100. Remember that live games in general play much looser then games online. The winrates are substantially higher at these low limits.

[VBCurtis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I believe 25-50 is beatable for 9BB/100 before rake, while the game is generally tighter than my local 4/8; this is where I get my estimates for 9-12BB/100 for 4/8 and lower. Your 5/10 game sounds like my usual conditions.
-Curtis

[/ QUOTE ]

9bb/100, you must be one of the greatest poker players of all time.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the PT main screen, add the total rake paid to your profit, and recompute your winrate before rake . At micro stakes online, some sites have a 4BB/100 rake, and beating a 25-cent limit game for 5BB/100 is totally feasible-- we're not talking 1/2 here. Presto! 9BB/100.

You don't have to accept my gross (before rake) winrate estimates, either-- I detailed my calculation method, so you can plug in numbers that suit your game, if you wish.

I suggest you take your 1-1.5 BB/hr guess for the other poster's 4/8 and figure out what BB/100 that corresponds to before rake. If you include a $1 tip per fully raked pot, it's quite close to 9BB/100 for 1.5 BB/hr.

Which is it, then? Is 9BB/100 gross impossible, making 1.5BB/hr after rake impossible?