Update - Week of September 25th

[Berge20]

Iowa primaries

[Beastmaster]

Iowa primaries...correct
It doesn't sound like Frist has a shot, will he ever think that or will he crusade for the anti gambling bill to the very end? What are the stoppers during the lame duck session that could curtail his efforts during that time?

[LearnedfromTV]

A few political capital questions for the insiders re Frist and the lame duck period/next year:

- If Republicans maintain control on the Senate, is Frist certain/likely/unlikely to be majority leader in the next Senate? (is this revisited in each congress, does the rift in the party mean he may be replaced, etc.?)

- how would Frist's likely status in the next Senate (whether b/c the Dems win control or b/c he may lose leadership, whatever) affect his ability to get what he wants in the lame duck session? How lame a duck might he be?

- Who are the other most powerful Republican Senators? If Frist has lost status in the party, who in the party benefits? (wrt the lame duck period, which senators might be pulling strings Frist can't pull as well any more? If he were to be replaced next year, by whom?)

[Jay Cohen]

My source in Washington just told me Frist is now definitely trying to attach it to the Homeland Security bill.

I am not sure how current my contact's information is.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
My source in Washington just told me Frist is now definitely trying to attach it to the Homeland Security bill.

I am not sure how current my contact's information is.

[/ QUOTE ]

He might be, since Hastert is now trying to use the DHS bill for his riders too. However, CongressDaily PM reports:

" Senate Judiciary Chairman Specter is threatening to remove his signature from the FY07 Homeland Security appropriations conference report if House GOP leaders insist on adding more immigration-related legislation, possibly sinking the bill's chances for passage before the elections. He stated his intention in a letter today to House Speaker Hastert, Senate Majority Leader Frist and top GOP appropriators. Specter, a senior appropriator, signed off on the report when conferees approved it Monday night. "Operating in good faith, I was asked to sign the conference report with the understanding that the conference report was closed," Specter wrote. "I would like to state for the record my strong opposition to any changes to the agreed-upon conference report."
Hastert was holding back appropriators from filing the $34.8 billion spending bill until negotiators resolve whether to include House-passed bills on alien gang violence and court security in the spending bill or the defense authorization bill. Both House bills are within the Judiciary Committee's jurisdiction, and Specter and others have expressed opposition to the effort. Including the additional measures in the Homeland Security bill also might prompt Democratic conferees to remove their signatures. "What is this, the Soviet parliament? The leadership will make decisions behind closed doors, regardless of the rules?" asked House Appropriations ranking member David Obey, D-Wis. Hastert contended that he has received promises from Senate leaders to move the legislation one way or another."

Also of note:

"The Senate today kicked off debate on a contentious stand-alone military tribunal measure after Majority Leader Frist and Minority Leader Reid reached an agreement on a handful of amendments and limited debate. Frist said earlier today he would push the chamber to quickly wrap up debate on the legislation as early as tonight without amending the package. "I hope none of the amendments pass," Frist told reporters before announcing the deal.

[...]

Meanwhile, Frist today said he has four legislative goals to accomplish before adjourning Friday or Saturday: the military tribunal and border fence bills, as well as conference reports on FY07 Homeland Security and Defense spending measures. House and Senate Republicans have given up on enacting legislation addressing the president's domestic spying program. And the clock is ticking down on a conference report for the FY07 defense authorization bill."

Summary: the fight over non-germane riders has now moved from the defense authorization bill to DHS appropriations bill, although it is not clear if internet gabmling is a part of it. Fortunately, it looks like it may meet the same result. Other avenues for Frist are probably closed.

Left to intertial forces, this Congress will get very little done this week, and we will probably pass through to the elections unscathed. However, tidal shifts and deal-making of various kinds are certainly possible, which I will leave it to others to speculate about.

One thing's for sure -- if we make it through the year without internet gambling language being enacted, we will owe a big thank you to Senators Warner and Specter.

[Mr.K]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing's for sure -- if we make it through the year without internet gambling language being enacted, we will owe a big thank you to Senators Warner and Specter.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very true.

As for the other elements of your analysis, I think right on throughout. I am very curious about this effort to re-open the DHS Approps conference report, since that report has been signed and is technically not open to further amendments. I gather the Senate Democrats on the DHS Approps conference will withdraw their signatures on the conference report if this nonsense continues, and then we're in a stange spot.

But don't underestimate the power of leadership. Lets say that Frist and Hastert decide to play hardball and insert their pet language into the DHS Appropriations Conference Report. Lets further say that enough Senators withdraw their signatures from the DHS approps conference report after that happens to stop it from proceeding. Guess what Frist and Hastert would probably do? Yup, they'd create an new bill, H.R.xxxx, stick in the text of the DHS Appropriations conference report plus their pet provisions, and then put it on the floor for a vote. Now, I don't see how that would get blocked in the House, but such a move COULD draw a filibuster in the Senate... though it would take balls the size of church bells to filibuster a DHS package this close to elections (something Frist would be banking on when making such a power play).

The intrigue continues!

[spatne]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing's for sure -- if we make it through the year without internet gambling language being enacted, we will owe a big thank you to Senators Warner and Specter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm old enough to have proudly voted against Arlen Specter twice, but I will say this about him:

The man is a tough SOB when he wants to be. The health problems that he's had would've ended many people's lives, let alone their careers. In a throwdown with Frist, I'll take Snarlin' Arlen over any other Republican I can think of. That's if and only if he decides to dig in his heels and play the bulldog. Unfortunately, that's far from certain.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

Also, from Roll Call today.

"Irritated at GOP leaders in both chambers who have often used the annual spending bills as vehicles for more controversial measures, House Appropriations Chairman Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.) and Senate Appropriations Chairman Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) said they are prepared to stay in session through the winter holidays to avoid passing a catch-all omnibus spending bill this year.

“Whether we work through the holidays or pass long-term continuing resolutions, we are committed to completing the FY 2007 appropriations process in an open and orderly manner, without resorting to an omnibus strategy,” the two chairmen wrote in a Monday letter to Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.).

Though the letter does not explicitly mention attempts by the leadership to attach unrelated measures to spending bills, Cochran acknowledged Tuesday that the letter was partially intended to let leaders know that appropriators are not happy with their bills being used to force other measures to the floor at the end of Congressional sessions."

Analysis: Attachment of non-germane riders is a "hot" issue right now and leadership is not being given the same Get Out of Jail Free card that it usually is. Most likely, this has to do with the GOP's poor approval rakings and lingering dissatisfaction among the rank-and-file with leadership, which is emerging in dramatic swaths this week. Whether this continues after the election -- assuming we make it that far -- will likely depend on the results of the election.

[Mr.K]

Yeah, this Republican vs Republican and Chairmen vs Leadership brawl is truly unprecedented as far as the last 5 or 6 years go. I think it is a sign of unrest in the GOP caucus and a feeling among some Senators and Members of Congress that the leadership on both sides has done a poor job of steering the agenda and managing the workflow.

Here's a cartoon from today's Roll Call that sums it all up nicely:

[BruinEric]

[ QUOTE ]

"Irritated at GOP leaders in both chambers who have often used the annual spending bills as vehicles for more controversial measures, House Appropriations Chairman Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.) and Senate Appropriations Chairman Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) said they are prepared to stay in session through the winter holidays to avoid passing a catch-all omnibus spending bill this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing gets a Senator's attention like threatening his/her winter break!

We really owe some of this house rep angst over non-germane bills to some loud Republican constituents' spending-hawk backlash over recent pork-fests by many of their own. Talk radio mockery over Alaskan bridges, etc. didn't hurt either.

Plus, in a heated election time, a single issue bill keeps opponents votes very clearly definied. An opponent can't say "I would've voted for it if not for unpalatable stuff tagged on the bill."

So on that, the poker bill opponents have caught a little break because I don't see many elected reps taking a stand FOR poker. It's all going to have to be behind-the-scenes machinations.