Proper River Bet/Fold Line?

[colgin]

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Awful hand in my opinion. Either 3bet the flop or checkraise the turn, you're likely way ahead. Find a way to get more money in this pot.


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I agree 100% with this sentiment. I would have three-bet the flop and led the turn.

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Then you bet and fold the river? Barf! Bet-call and checkcall are both way better then bet-fold. The pot is big you know and his hand doesn't really look like it contains a K anyway.

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Given Hero's line up until this point I don't think bet-fold is a bad way to play the river. Hero says this played like an online $2/4 game. In those games you don't see a lot of bluff raising the river. Hero has played his hand like AK when he bets this river. Villain raises. Villain is saying either I can beat AK (or I have AK myself). Unless Hero has a read to the contrary that villain is capable of bluff raising (or making very thin value raises), I think he is usually beat here.

Check-calling is OK if you are afraid you might get blown off the best hand. However the K on the river is going to be a scare card to hands like 99-JJ, especially given the way Hero played the flop and turn. Often those hands will check this river down, but they will always call a bet here to protect against a bluff.

If Hero is going to be putting in a BB on the river I think he is much better off betting than check-calling. Unfortunately when he gets raised, notwithstanding the large pot, against a typical (non-tricky) player he is beat often enough to warrant a fold IMO.