Interesting Situation in my NFL Picks League

[sp3ctr3]

I worked some things out but I have based it only on winning a perfect 14 games. There are many other possibilities and and I don't know if there is an edge in those.

Below is a list of 14 possible games and the how often the picker is correct. Two games are 50-50 those are given more detail.

A 50% Team X - Team Z
B 90%
C 80%
D 85%
E 95%
F 90%
G 95%
H 85%
I 95%
J 90%
K 50% Team W - Team Y
L 70%
M 80%
N 75%

One Picks Team all 14 wins = ~3.79%

Possible outcomes – XW, XY, ZW, ZY

Picks Team 1 – AC
Picks Team 2 – AD
Picks Team 3 – BD

One out of three teams getting 14 wins = ~11.38%

~3.79 x 3 = ~ 11.38

no gained equity

I think the actual benefits could come in the other possibilties, but so far it looks like 3 teams do not have an advantage. Someone else give a run at the numbers. I was messing around with another model but it would take time I do not have on my lunch break to figure out.