Party Blackjack - kickass Promo

[almostbusto]

I have 6k on party and 2k in my checking account... all my other money is in sportsbooks/neteller and can not get to party in time(party is not linked to neteller because this is my 3rd or 4th account).

i definitely want to maximize ev and don't care about variance... so i think i am going to go with betting 200. but i am nervous thats not actually maxEV since if i bust i won't be able to play anymore hands, ie its definitely not max ev if your entire bankroll was 200 since you are gone on the first hand so often. i am guessing it is for a 30-40 unit bankroll though. i'll try and run the math for how small a bankroll you need before betting 200 is not maxEV


EDIT: also party is ambiguous abot whether the promo ends on the 21st or the 25th. in the case of the 25th would it be smarter for me to bet less than 200 from an EV perspective? i would just hate to bust out on day two and not get a chance to take advantage of any future days

[FUJItheFISH]

[ QUOTE ]
estimates for how much party is going to lose in this promo?

[/ QUOTE ]

roughly negative ten billion dollars. rigged.

[grando]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... 10 Units still aka 250$

[/ QUOTE ]
thx, Whats the variance? Like $2000?

[/ QUOTE ]

[gay math not suitable for BBV]

standard deviation of blackjack = 1.2 (standard blackjack is 1.155, I'm assuming the SD is slightly higher because of the 2:1 BJ payoff)

SD 600 hands = 1.2*sqrt(600) = 29.4 units

Expectation = +10.3 units

So

65% chance of finishing between -19.1 units and +39.7
95% chance of finishing between -48.5 and +69.1
99.7% chance of finishing between -77.9 and +98.5

[/end gay math]

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that, if you do it all 3 days:

SD(1800 hands) = 1.2*[sqrt(1800)] = 50.91

expectation = 10.3*3 = 30.9

65% chance of being between -20 and 81.8 units
95% chance of being between -70.9 and 132.7 units
99.7% chance of being between -121.8 and 183.6

[Sponger.]

[ QUOTE ]
estimates for how much party is going to lose in this promo?

[/ QUOTE ]

They will make money off this promo.

[grando]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
estimates for how much party is going to lose in this promo?

[/ QUOTE ]

They will make money off this promo.

[/ QUOTE ]

definitely

[_TKO_]

Does Party pay for InstaCASH deposits?

[chopstick]

[ QUOTE ]
estimates for how much party is going to lose in this promo?

[/ QUOTE ]

.00001% of their net profit for that day.


estimates for how many people are going to go tilt-bust when they hit a 10 unit downswing?

estimates for how many people will use a roll size insufficient for the variance that will accompany their bet size?

[SoCalRugger]

I used up all my luck on Mansion keno, so I'd probably get destroyed doing this. But it's 3-4 pm on the West coast, so I won't be able to find out.

[grando]

since $$$$ is cooler (at $200 bets):

65% chance of being between -$4000 and +$16,360
95% chance of being between -$14,180 and +$26,540
99.7% chance of being between -$24,360 and +$36,720

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
estimates for how much party is going to lose in this promo?

[/ QUOTE ]

They will make money off this promo.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe not directly from the promo, but in the long run they will make toooooooooooooons because people of course will continue to play even after the promo.