Calling Equity? late 20/180

[NoExtinction]

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Typically when players push two or three times in a row, they have legitimate hands, since they know they have a small bullseye on their heads. I would be surprised if you were ahead in this instance, unless the villian was on tilt, but his showdowns seem to indicate otherwise.

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I hear you but.. would his previous rush be any indication that his very next hand would be 'premium' as well? And if so, why? Realize his blinds are coming in 3 hands - at 2K

[PokerBarney]

I'd fold. It's just not quite good enough, and you'd either be a coin toss or a big dog. A big shaggy dog.

[patchdiaz]

I agree. I would wait for a bigger hand. This all-in move actually doesn't say much about his hand, he could easily have AK or QJ. Why are you so sure you're ahead here?

[NoExtinction]

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I agree. I would wait for a bigger hand. This all-in move actually doesn't say much about his hand, he could easily have AK or QJ. Why are you so sure you're ahead here?

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Biggest reason is (his) tilt factor and second reason is his slight pause.
a) when someone takes a bad beat for most of their chips, then goes allin next hand, I tend to put those people on a much wider range of hands than if they had time to 'cool off'
b) His pause. The time he pushed for all his chips and showed AA, he did an instapush. The time he called with AJ, he instacalled. There was a slight delay in his action on this hand, so I sensed weakness
c) third reason -- he was in the cutoff and was first in, therefore he was using the leverage of first-in vig and FE . If you believe they are leaning on this FE crutch should one not use the reverse?

Here is my main contention with the standard "I'd rather push with 72o than call with K9" line:
1) people are going to call with a top 10% hand, meaning with 7 people, even if I wait a hand or two to try and get lucky and pick up a hand - there will be over a 50% chance that one of the others has a calling hand. Even if I go allin with 72, there is over a 50% chance that one of the other 6 players will call with a top 10% hand.
b) these blinds and antes are nasty. I will be losing 30% of my chips soon, after which my FE goes down considerably

I dig the green plastic guys. I dig the FE concept. But I am fostering the idea that there is a counter to FE (from others) and that the more people abuse the first-in FE, the more I should call (or reraise) in certain situations that evidently everyone sees as an automatic fold. If everyone is playing the same way (pushbotting with 5-12BB, only calling with premium at 5-12BB), where is the skill? I am not saying make a habit of calling with top 25% hands, but man if there ever was a spot to do it I thought this was the time

[runout_mick]

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If everyone is playing the same way (pushbotting with 5-12BB, only calling with premium at 5-12BB), where is the skill? I am not saying make a habit of calling with top 25% hands, but man if there ever was a spot to do it I thought this was the time

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The thing is, not "everyone" is versed in short stack theory. The vast majority of players have almost no concept of blinds in relation to stack size.

Assume he's still playing tight until given a reason to believe otherwise.

No matter WHAT my read on him is, I'm still not ever calling with K9...

Edit: Especially with players left to act.

[NoExtinction]

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The thing is, not "everyone" is versed in short stack theory. The vast majority of players have almost no concept of blinds in relation to stack size.

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The villain was decent and I had played with him for a few levels. His stats (ROI and $) were 25% ish and +6Kish

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Assume he's still playing tight until given a reason to believe otherwise.


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the dude had an M of 4 and was about to lose half of his chips in a few hands... plus possible tilt factor

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No matter WHAT my read on him is, I'm still not ever calling with K9

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-- this is what I'm challenging. There have to be exceptions! (in my mind)

[CybrPunk]

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I agree. I would wait for a bigger hand. This all-in move actually doesn't say much about his hand, he could easily have AK or QJ. Why are you so sure you're ahead here?

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Biggest reason is (his) tilt factor and second reason is his slight pause.
a) when someone takes a bad beat for most of their chips, then goes allin next hand, I tend to put those people on a much wider range of hands than if they had time to 'cool off'
b) His pause. The time he pushed for all his chips and showed AA, he did an instapush. The time he called with AJ, he instacalled. There was a slight delay in his action on this hand, so I sensed weakness
c) third reason -- he was in the cutoff and was first in, therefore he was using the leverage of first-in vig and FE . If you believe they are leaning on this FE crutch should one not use the reverse?

Here is my main contention with the standard "I'd rather push with 72o than call with K9" line:
1) people are going to call with a top 10% hand, meaning with 7 people, even if I wait a hand or two to try and get lucky and pick up a hand - there will be over a 50% chance that one of the others has a calling hand. Even if I go allin with 72, there is over a 50% chance that one of the other 6 players will call with a top 10% hand.
b) these blinds and antes are nasty. I will be losing 30% of my chips soon, after which my FE goes down considerably

I dig the green plastic guys. I dig the FE concept. But I am fostering the idea that there is a counter to FE (from others) and that the more people abuse the first-in FE, the more I should call (or reraise) in certain situations that evidently everyone sees as an automatic fold. If everyone is playing the same way (pushbotting with 5-12BB, only calling with premium at 5-12BB), where is the skill? I am not saying make a habit of calling with top 25% hands, but man if there ever was a spot to do it I thought this was the time

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This is all relative to the chipstacks and blind structure at the time. Because calling and busting leaves you with no chips you are better off open pushing any hand that folds to you as opposed to calling here and utilizing YOUR fold equity, forcing the players who are playing tight to pickup a hand in order to play. Most of them won't call with K9 as you did here.

The other flaw in your thinking is that a player who open pushes most likely no longer has a random hand. When you open push you are assuming that you are pushing into random hands and assign a range to how often they call. The opposite is true here. The OR no longer has a random hand and now has a hand that fits a certain range. That range could easily be be wide but how wide... maybe he's pushing the top 40% of hands... but it's not random any more. How does K9o fare against some of those ranges?

Vs top 40% K9o is a 53/47 dog.

Vs top 20% K9o is a 62/38 dog.

Vs top 50% K9o is only a 52/47 favorite.

So even if we are optimistic and assume villain is pushing the top 40% of hands, which is a pretty loose range for a guy shoving UTG, we're still a dog and if we're really optimistic and say it's top 50% we're only a slight favorite versus that range. How can calling be good here when we still have a small amount of fold equity against the guys with 17k stacks? Of course you don't shove into the CL's blind. Just shove into the medium-small stacks blinds without regard to your cards. No matter what you hold it's more +EV than calling here without a doubt.

[NoExtinction]

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This is all relative to the chipstacks and blind structure at the time. Because calling and busting leaves you with no chips you are better off open pushing any hand that folds to you as opposed to calling here and utilizing YOUR fold equity, forcing the players who are playing tight to pickup a hand in order to play. Most of them won't call with K9 as you did here.

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This is the modus operandis for everyone who sticks to first in/FE, I agree. As noted, everyone at the table is 4BB-15BB

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The other flaw in your thinking is that a player who open pushes most likely no longer has a random hand. When you open push you are assuming that you are pushing into random hands and assign a range to how often they call. The opposite is true here. The OR no longer has a random hand and now has a hand that fits a certain range. That range could easily be be wide but how wide... maybe he's pushing the top 40% of hands... but it's not random any more. How does K9o fare against some of those ranges?

Vs top 40% K9o is a 53/47 dog.

Vs top 20% K9o is a 62/38 dog.

Vs top 50% K9o is only a 52/47 favorite.

So even if we are optimistic and assume villain is pushing the top 40% of hands, which is a pretty loose range for a guy shoving UTG, we're still a dog and if we're really optimistic and say it's top 50% we're only a slight favorite versus that range. How can calling be good here when we still have a small amount of fold equity against the guys with 17k stacks? Of course you don't shove into the CL's blind. Just shove into the medium-small stacks blinds without regard to your cards. No matter what you hold it's more +EV than calling here without a doubt.

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Aha, see here's what I have a problem with. A major problem. Due to the factors described, I do not believe he has anything better than a random hand. Why would he? If he has the "I'd rather push with 72 than call with K9" mentality that everyone seems to have, why do I, by default, have to assume that he has above a 50% hand? In fact, I'm suspecting he is using his FE to open up his range and could have anything. Any ace (I doubt but sure, it's possible).. Any K, my kicker is bleh but decent against an "any K" hand. Any Q, any J etc and now I have a decent chance to double up. Not random anymore, for sure, but not necessarily a good hand! Even if I am 50/50, with the blinds I am doubling up (if they dont call). So if you "knew" you were 50/50, you would still fold?

And the double up part is key ~ I want to double up. If forced to push with "any two" and hope that that my FE carries me for another orbit, there is a 50% chance that someone at the table will actually call with a top 15% hand. Is my chance to double up there any better? No. If I do manage to sqeak out another orbit after stealing the blinds once, I will be in the same position in 7 hands unless I pick up some actual cards, only now I might not have this shot against the 'possible tilt' player.

Realistically, what is my best chance to double up? Well, I will have to get some cards and actually have someone call, or get lucky when someone calls my Q8 (or whatever) allin with an AT etc and double up that way.

Against a poor player who I did not assess as realizing the value of first-in/FE, I would not be inclined to call here. But against a good player whom I'm assuming is well aware of First-in/FE, is short-stacked and possibly on tilt, and possibly exploiting his recent rush to help his image, this is precisely why I made the call (reraise allin actually).

As for image, when my K9 does prove to be the best hand I've now:
a) shown that I can make some bold (odd/loose) calls and display amazing powers of insight (or just insane, in which case if someone pushes into my BB i will suspect they have cards and want a call)
b) I have enough chips to knock people out again and/or survive some orbits until I get a hand
c) Now when I do get a hand I might actually double up with them instead of simply buy the blinds.

My image up to this point had been tight/solid. Everyone (with the exception of two who are now gone) at the table had been playing the same ole pushbot when first in, call with premium for the last 2 levels. Complete [censored] luckfest.. No skill whatsoever, coinflip-a-rame, overpair-arama, bad beats here and there, etc. BORING. Tell me, where does skill come in in the 20/180s when down to 2 tables when there is absolutely no post flop play whatsoever. I've been to the finl 2 tables 3 of the 6 20/180s I've played and I'd say roughly 12 of the last 18 players are all-to-aware of first-in-Vig, and with the possible exception of a monster stack and the looser players, everyone is playing completely predictably. As such, I'm trying to find spots to be creative

This hand was the only one in the tourney that actually made me *think* hard, which was a good feeling for a change

[jon_1van]

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Realistically, what is my best chance to double up?

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Steal twice, and get a hand.

[FortunaMaximus]

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Realistically, what is my best chance to double up? Well, I will have to get some cards and actually have someone call, or get lucky when someone calls my Q8 (or whatever) allin with an AT etc and double up that way.

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You'd think you had to be be up against similar ranges in the K9o hand. K9o runs into too many wrong-end 60/40's and is easily dominated otherwise. At the best, you're hoping to flip pairs lower than 88 OR dominating something. That doesn't mean you call here. The key to the Q8 > AT hypothetical is first-in vig, because you can tick a few points of FE into the factors.